General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Could Cat 5 Hurricane Matthew be the October surprise [View all]malaise
(268,698 posts)this has never happened - I fear for Port Royal, St Thomas, all of the Kingston waterfront and Portmore, Then I fear for those squatting in the mountainsides and hills for we're expecting 8-24" of fugging rain and hurricane winds. If Kingston gets a direct hit, there will be a massive loss of life. That Palisadoes road to the airport is on my mind.
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From Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3453
The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthews dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.