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In reply to the discussion: Tracking Matthew folks - what if he does not turn North [View all]malaise
(268,930 posts)That's a recipe for mud slides.
Masters says threat to the US has increased
Matthew Stalls and Weakens, but Expected to Head North; Threat to U.S. Increases
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https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3457
Longer-range track forecast for Matthew: risk increases to U.S. East Coast
Over the past two days, our two best computer models have been trending towards a more westerly track for Matthew late this week, increasing the odds that Matthew will make a direct hit somewhere along the U.S. East Coast. Sundays 00Z European model and 06Z GFS model had Matthew coming very close to or making landfall in North Carolina 6 - 7 days from now. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 4), just about any location along the East Coast could potentially see a hurricane landfall this week. Since the hurricane is expected to be moving roughly parallel to the coast, a long stretch of the coast may receive strong winds and heavy rain from Matthew. We do have three decent models predicting a path for Matthew well away for the U.S. coast late in the week, thoughthe HWRF, Canadian and GFDLso it is not yet a foregone conclusion that Matthew will impact the U.S. coast.