When will the pro-Dem demographic shift kick in?

[Awsi Dooger]

12. It has already happened

The demographic shift was proposed to be enough by now. Whites as percentage of the electorate dropped from roughly 90% in 1980 to low 70s recently. The assessments often used low 70s as the tipping point. That's why you had Dick Morris asserting we'd never see another Republican president again. I wish. It was using the old estimates of how each block would vote. Those estimates went out the window when Obama turned off so many white working class voters post 2012 that the old math no longer applies. Now we need the hispanic numbers to remain lopsided in our favor, which is no guarantee.

That's always the danger when using the "emerging majority" type of forecasts. It's kind of remarkable how different segments shift around and the bottom line remains almost equally balanced.