General Discussion

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

50. 2 AM Euro model now agrees with more easterly path

Wed Sep 6, 2017, 03:31 AM

Sep 2017

This is the message board I've been sampling:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=7820

It's all about the path, specifically models that project the path. They delete posts that aren't devoted to that topic.

Notice on Page 392 of the thread the conversation shifts suddenly when the Euro model is in agreement with the GFS version from several hours earlier, indicating an earlier move northward. Euro is the more respected of the two. If there hadn't been agreement from Euro, the GFS version would have been discounted.

Obviously this is subject to change again. But the trend is the friend, as some of the regular posters on that forum have announced. A few of them had predicted this easterly shift and expect it to continue in the same direction.

That would be great news for me in Miami but I'm not taking anything for granted.

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Irma: Gusts of 225 MPH! [View all] LittleBlue Sep 2017 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author steve2470 Sep 2017 #1

Get out man LittleBlue Sep 2017 #2

yes. go. now. mopinko Sep 2017 #19

now is the time MFM008 Sep 2017 #35

Leave if it heads your way Phoenix61 Sep 2017 #41

Leave now. Pack up all your people and shit and leave MrScorpio Sep 2017 #56

Cat 5+ Not Ruth Sep 2017 #3

Remember that line from Jaws? Wounded Bear Sep 2017 #7

Spinal Tap Not Ruth Sep 2017 #10

I might be the only person in my generation who hasn't seen that flick... Wounded Bear Sep 2017 #14

There is an amp, which a band member claims to be more powerful than any other amp Not Ruth Sep 2017 #15

Why don't you just make 10 louder? A HERETIC I AM Sep 2017 #21

What gave you abd "not ruth" been drinking? pangaia Sep 2017 #34

A roadie said astrophysicist Brian May would want it 12 Cicada Sep 2017 #33

So what? We have a 100 mile wide tornado? Wounded Bear Sep 2017 #4

That moves a few miles an hour. NightWatcher Sep 2017 #5

With storm surge. Barack_America Sep 2017 #6

I wonder if the animals know to evacuate Not Ruth Sep 2017 #11

Omg. The Key deer. B2G Sep 2017 #27

ah shit....hadn't thought of that..... dhill926 Sep 2017 #38

I always thought birds left instinctively tavernier Sep 2017 #31

500 miles wide Sedona Sep 2017 #63

Keep an eye on her forward speed. That slows then she could begin the shift north. Purveyor Sep 2017 #8

Good information Awsi Dooger Sep 2017 #37

irma intensity will shrink as it hits land masses like PR, Cuba....will not be anywhere beachbum bob Sep 2017 #9

yep I think that will be the case steve2470 Sep 2017 #12

Irma will drop down to Cat 3 when it hits US...that is bad requardless beachbum bob Sep 2017 #24

+1 nt steve2470 Sep 2017 #26

Yes, the weather forecasters are hoping that it slams Cuba, to help the US Not Ruth Sep 2017 #13

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But as we saw with Harvey, the rainfall is what caused most damage... VOX Sep 2017 #43

And could yet strengthen again after hitting land and returning LanternWaste Sep 2017 #66

Ridiculously powerful. EF5 tornadic winds are 200 mph. n/t LuckyCharms Sep 2017 #16

Actually 200mph is EF4. defacto7 Sep 2017 #20

Thanks for the clarification. n/t LuckyCharms Sep 2017 #23

If you can spare a moment Kentonio Sep 2017 #57

Here's a couple of links defacto7 Sep 2017 #68

Many thanks for the information. Kentonio Sep 2017 #69

Will it lose power after goes over the islands in its path, becore reaching FL? AJT Sep 2017 #17

Too many factors to figure, but I trust the NWS defacto7 Sep 2017 #22

ICE - Energy (x t eq. Power) is still there. Ike, Sandy, etc. Strelnikov_ Sep 2017 #28

Depends on path. tavernier Sep 2017 #32

Jimmy. 😍 pangaia Sep 2017 #36

When it goes thru greytdemocrat Sep 2017 #25

One thing is for sure, what ever path Irma takes, Florida is screwed. William769 Sep 2017 #29

Actions to Take When a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Threatens steve2470 Sep 2017 #30

Remembering Andrew. MFM008 Sep 2017 #39

Holy God. I have friends in Jacksonville Beach. Hekate Sep 2017 #40

Yowza. zentrum Sep 2017 #42

Several models tonight indicating a more easterly path Awsi Dooger Sep 2017 #44

thank you for the research! steve2470 Sep 2017 #45

2 AM Euro model now agrees with more easterly path Awsi Dooger Sep 2017 #50

great board, thanks, and good luck to you in Miami! nt steve2470 Sep 2017 #51

Thank you Awsi Dooger Sep 2017 #55

some recent info steve2470 Sep 2017 #46

latest public advisory steve2470 Sep 2017 #47

Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory steve2470 Sep 2017 #48

interactive map steve2470 Sep 2017 #49

Bad news RandySF Sep 2017 #53

We are in northern coast of Dominican Republic. Please keep us in your thoughts. Hotel movimy secondwind Sep 2017 #52

Good luck! *hugs* GreenPartyVoter Sep 2017 #54

Stay safe!! Kentonio Sep 2017 #60

Hurricane Irma Public Advisory steve2470 Sep 2017 #58

Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion steve2470 Sep 2017 #59

"Barometric pressure at #Barbuda transitioned from typical small double diurnal variation....." steve2470 Sep 2017 #61

Before the anemometer broke, winds were gusting to 155 mph. steve2470 Sep 2017 #62

if you want the latest on Irma this might help you steve2470 Sep 2017 #64

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Gotta say, I went thru a hurricane in clearwater, Florida many years ago......... Old Vet Sep 2017 #67