Hampton University poll: Gillespie ahead 8 pts in va governors race

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Not true...Virginia is a must win

The national narrative will completely change if Gillespie wins. It will equate to 2017 being a successful year for the GOP. Trump will taunt and taunt. Suddenly the low approval ratings mean nothing. Republicans who are hesitant to run in 2018 will sense they can get away with it, if not thrive. It will lead to even more outrageous candidates successfully wooed by Bannon.

I don't believe in this poll margin, or the ones indicating Northam has a big lead. Logic points to a tight race. Gillespie barely lost to Mark Warner in the 2014 senate race despite Warner owning a 56% approval rating and leading the pre-election polls by 9 points on average. Yet they were still counting the votes days after election day. That's how tight it was. I remember Nate Silver writing a very long column after being surprised at how tight that outcome turned out to be. He said it would have been the largest senate upset in nearly 20 years based on polling.

So if Gillespie owned enough benefit of a doubt 3 years ago against a popular incumbent I don't see hows he's projected to get thumped in an open race against a lesser candidate. Voters typically are more willing to switch parties for governor than in federal races.

Besides, the white and rural trend toward Republicans is very real. Gillespie likely will outperform his 2014 numbers in those rural areas. Coal is a factor in Virginia.

While intelligent voters are outraged at Trump and independents have shifted away from him, the bottom line in these odd-year races is that turnout is comparatively low...probably 40% or less...and those rural angry white voters are more likely to show up than some of our constituencies like young single females, who often can't be bothered to vote in elections like this one.

I still think Northam will win narrowly but obviously an indication like this one is a jolt.