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In reply to the discussion: Russia delivers nuclear warning to Denmark [View all]rogerashton
(3,920 posts)The RF may feel they have a viable anti-Nato strategy, here. And it might work. On the one hand, membership in NATO brings non-nuclear European countries under the American/British "nuclear umbrella." On the other hand, it guarantees that the country will be embroiled in any confrontation between Russia and the US/Britain. When there were Soviet forces in East Germany and Czechoslovakia, the risk of being brought into a confrontation surely seemed less than the risk of being overrun by the Red Army. With the nearest Russian forces in the Kaliningrad Oblast, and Russia pinned down in the south by conflict in the Caucasus and Ukraine -- however aggressive the Russian position there is judged to be -- the risk of being drawn into a Russia-US conflict may begin to seem to be greater risk than the risk of being invaded by Russia, in a country like Denmark, Belgium, Spain -- or, indeed, Germany. Of course, the balance of risks will have a different appearance in Poland and the Baltic coast, and probably Norway (though Norway might look to the example of Finland.) If we see more of these reminders in western European countries, we may be seeing a strategy to weaken Nato as a whole, and one that could work.
Don't underestimate Putin as a strategist. The "Putin is crazy" view is oversimple and deceptive. Putin has a very weak position -- he knows it -- the one strength he has is the stock of nuclear weapons -- and he knows that. This is much more dangerous than many seem to recognize.