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In reply to the discussion: Russia delivers nuclear warning to Denmark [View all]Xithras
(16,191 posts)I don't know that Putin really cares as much about being "the" superpower as he cares about being "a" superpower in the economic revolution that will remap the world in the coming century. The old Sino-Russian split has largely been buried over the past few decades, and multiple treaties have lead to a close economic relationship between the two. Putin has been a huge supporter of the BRICs concept and made sure that Russia was host to the first summit of BRICs nations. Economists have been talking for nearly 20 years about the fact that Brazil, Russia, India, and China will be the dominant economic powers on the planet by 2050 (there are already more billionaires in the BRICs nations than in all the "western" world combined). Goldman Sachs is currently projecting that China will pass the U.S. as the largest equity market in the world by 2030...only 15 years from now. By 2050, BRICs will represent the majority of the worlds population, its largest economies, the worlds largest producers of completed goods, and the worlds largest producers of raw materials.
Putin sees BRICs as the instrument that will ultimately end American hegemony both militarily and economically. His problem is that he can't really push to build a cohesive political bloc with the other BRIC nations unless they take Russia seriously. He needs for them to see Russia as a superpower capable of standing up to America and NATO before any of them will take the political (and possible military) risks that go along with really severing the ties that bind them to the U.S. and Europe. Putin's various political and military ventures really come down to his showing off to make that one simple point.
You may be right that China will be the economic power in any eastern alliance, and I'm sure that Putin realizes that, but China tends to be a bit shy when it comes to military confrontation with the west. They seem to avoid behaviors that might challenge or undermine the economic progress they have made, while still being ambitious about their position in the world. If Russia's ultimate role is to act as the sword and shield in a new international alliance that is dominated both economically and politically by China, I'm not sure that Putin would really have a problem with that. It still restores Russia to superpower status and puts the nation on the "winning side" of the upcoming economic shift.