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In reply to the discussion: Trump beats Clinton by 3 points in new poll [View all]LadyHawkAZ
(6,199 posts)Clinton only had one viable opponent; Trump had three. That's where your Hillmath has a lil' problem. Those voters that voted Cruz, Rubio and Kasich (and the million or so that went Carson and Bush)? They will not be voting for Clinton. They will be voting for Trump, probably close to all 27 million of them. Republicans tend to lockstep.
Roughly 23 million have voted in the Democratic primaries; 10 million of those voters went Sanders, almost all of whom the Real Democrats are doing their damndest to alienate, insult and smear. Not all of these will be voting for Clinton, even with her bestest buddy doing his bestest Evil Tyrant impression for the opposition. Democrats do not lockstep. They have to be persuaded.
Your candidate got 55% of 31% of the population.
Trump got 40% of 25%.
Trump's party members will back him en mass. Clinton's will not.
Trump appeals to independents. Clinton does not, and in fact has actively pushed them away because they lean Sanders.
We'd be lucky if it's just 3%.