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Showing Original Post only (View all)Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP [View all]
Last edited Sun Oct 23, 2016, 05:25 PM - Edit history (1)
Source: 538.com
By Nate Silver
Instead of a poll, lets start todays Election Update with some actual votes. According to the esteemable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 26-percentage-point turnout edge so far based on early and absentee voting in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), Nevada. And they have a 10-point edge in Washoe County (home to Reno).
Nevada is one of a number of states where Democrats usually do better in early voting than in the vote overall, so this shouldnt be taken to mean that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, are going to win their races by double digits. But Nevada is an interesting state, insofar as both Clinton and Donald Trump can find things to like about its demographic makeup: In Clintons case, the growing number of Hispanic and Asian-American voters bodes well for her; in Trumps case, theres the fact that only about one-third of Nevadas white voters have college degrees, according to FiveThirtyEights estimates. Furthermore, Nevada has shown tight polling all year, with Clinton having only pulled ahead since the debates surprising given that President Obama won Nevada by 7 percentage points in 2012 and that Clinton is beating Obamas numbers in other Western states.
Those early-voting numbers, though, dont look good for Trump. Democrats are matching their 2012 pace in Clark County, according to Ralston. And theyre beating it in Washoe County, a place where the demographics ought to be relatively Trump-friendly. If Clintons pulling in her marginal voters and Trump isnt getting his, thats how things could go from bad to worse for the GOP.
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The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls arent very good and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clintons 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls, with surveys showing everything from a 15-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Trump edge. But the ABC News poll is interesting given its recency and given why Clinton has pulled so far ahead in it Republicans arent very happy with their candidate and may not turn out to vote:
Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/
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