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Retired George

(332 posts)
Sun Oct 23, 2016, 01:58 PM Oct 2016

Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP [View all]

Last edited Sun Oct 23, 2016, 05:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: 538.com

By Nate Silver

Instead of a poll, let’s start today’s Election Update with some actual votes. According to the esteemable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 26-percentage-point turnout edge so far based on early and absentee voting in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), Nevada. And they have a 10-point edge in Washoe County (home to Reno).

Nevada is one of a number of states where Democrats usually do better in early voting than in the vote overall, so this shouldn’t be taken to mean that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, are going to win their races by double digits. But Nevada is an interesting state, insofar as both Clinton and Donald Trump can find things to like about its demographic makeup: In Clinton’s case, the growing number of Hispanic and Asian-American voters bodes well for her; in Trump’s case, there’s the fact that only about one-third of Nevada’s white voters have college degrees, according to FiveThirtyEight’s estimates. Furthermore, Nevada has shown tight polling all year, with Clinton having only pulled ahead since the debates — surprising given that President Obama won Nevada by 7 percentage points in 2012 and that Clinton is beating Obama’s numbers in other Western states.

Those early-voting numbers, though, don’t look good for Trump. Democrats are matching their 2012 pace in Clark County, according to Ralston. And they’re beating it in Washoe County, a place where the demographics ought to be relatively Trump-friendly. If Clinton’s pulling in her marginal voters and Trump isn’t getting his, that’s how things could go from bad to worse for the GOP.


The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls aren’t very good — and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning — the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate — showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls, with surveys showing everything from a 15-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Trump edge. But the ABC News poll is interesting given its recency and given why Clinton has pulled so far ahead in it — Republicans aren’t very happy with their candidate and may not turn out to vote:

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

Juicy flight? Lock the doors!
24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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that's what I'm hoping for NewJeffCT Oct 2016 #1
TRUMP ALONE CAN FIX IT bucolic_frolic Oct 2016 #2
Republicans have seen the light. 4 more years Oct 2016 #3
Demoralized and embarrassed....I like it! johnnyrocket Oct 2016 #13
I worked in a NM election voting site yesterday.... chillfactor Oct 2016 #4
Democrats voting 10 to 1 over Repubs? Holy shit Sherlock! PearliePoo2 Oct 2016 #9
That is right. In NM you declare a party. We lived there 10 years. nm AmericanActivist Oct 2016 #20
Don't remember who it was remarking on this, but moonscape Oct 2016 #5
Add in the weather on election day DeminPennswoods Oct 2016 #6
They've got time. They dont vote until the 28th... nt Earth_First Oct 2016 #7
Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP Botany Oct 2016 #8
The BIGLYEST THANK YOU Democrats could give President Obama is.... cynzke Oct 2016 #10
... Skittles Oct 2016 #11
The OP accidentally put the link to their Google Mail as the 538 link. herding cats Oct 2016 #14
Thank you for Pointing that Out Retired George Oct 2016 #21
Lol! herding cats Oct 2016 #22
LCS would have been less shocking... cynzke Oct 2016 #23
Thanks! cynzke Oct 2016 #24
Here's the correct link. herding cats Oct 2016 #15
Just saw someone on FB saying Hillary's election will split the nation for years to come. C Moon Oct 2016 #16
My own study... Canoe52 Oct 2016 #17
Who in the world has Trump leading by 2 points? His internal family poll? bulloney Oct 2016 #18
Even so, the propaganda is out there. louis-t Oct 2016 #19
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