First poll released for US Senate candidates in ND

[grantcart]

11. lol the good ole days

We were able to get the media to look at them more closely and Slate even called them the worst pollsters in America

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html

My perspective now:

1) Kaplan and the rest are really bad guys who used aggressive robo calls in their commercial business in a highly unethical way. Funniest example was when I found a connection between them and the "free trip to Florida scam" and while I was reading the particulars I got a call offering me a free trip to Florida.

I was able to trace one of the partners to an out right scam where they were using a name very similar to "Make A Wish" but couldn't get enough evidence to "reveal" the details.

2) I remember reading a release from Gravis where they admitted that they didn't have enough Pol Sci leadership to run polls and that they were hiring people to add that to them.

538 now gives them a B- and ranks them essentially the same as Gallup. They had a great in house advantage: Very sophisticated robo calling hardware. I assume that for the most part they are now a mainstream polling operation with one main exception below.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

however

3) I wouldn't trust Gravis OR ANY OTHER POLLSTER who posts atypical results during a time when there are critical fund raising numbers that will make or break a campaign. In that circumstance I believe that Gravis, and many other polling firms will "tailor" their polls (if they even run them) to get the results needed for an extra fee.

For example, during the Romney campaign there was clear polling that he was absolutely stuck in the swing states that he needed to win the electoral college. His contributions were drying up and surprise Larry Sabato Center for Politics (who is respected and mainstream) comes out with 2 or 3 polls that show a big bump for Romney in Colorado, Virginia and one other state (relying on memory) and the next week Romney's contributions are back up. No other pollster showed a bump. Subsequent polling, even by Sabato erased the bump.

We should take any poll with a grain of salt unless the same reputable polling company has done the same poll consistently which will show movement using exactly the same methodology (like Gallups weekly tracking poll).

During the campaign we should be very suspicious to outliers that are generous to the candidate who is paying for the poll because they can pull the poll just by changing the order of the questions.

What would be really helpful is if we had a pollster industry group that certified methodologies and whose members were agreeable to spot outside audits, like we do for the Olympics. At this point we don't even know if these companies are even making the calls or just billing their clients. In Gravis case they have the robo call infrastructure so making the calls doesn't cost them. Most other pollsters have to hire companies like Gravis to do the calling. US industries are particularly susceptible to not establishing ethical industry standards so caution is the best council.

Having said that having a lead in ND is a good sign, probably our toughest state to defend. The republicans and the WH are going to spend millions to try and flip this one.