Gov. Cuomo overwhelmingly beats out Cynthia Nixon for Democratic Party nomination

[Jim Lane]

37. It's true that a poll four months before the voting isn't conclusive proof.

You're right about that. Of course, a poll four days before the voting isn't conclusive proof, either.

The state convention isn't a popular vote. It's a gathering of party apparatchiks. The establishment party officials endorsed the incumbent -- hardly a surprise.

What you've "seen" about OR is more wishful thinking. OR endorsed many candidates in tough races, such as those challenging incumbents. Some won, some lost. If you want to think that OR does more harm than good, then you go right on believing that Nixon won't reach 15%.

How confident are you? We could make a little bet. This month I directed my Credo Mobile donation to the Brennan Center for Justice, which does a lot of good work on voting rights and other issues. From the Wikipedia article about the Center:

The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University Law School is a liberal-leaning and nonpartisan law and public policy institute.[2][3][4][5][6] The organization is named after Supreme Court Justice William J. Brennan.

The Brennan Center advocates for a number of progressive public policy positions, including raising the minimum wage, opposing voter ID laws, and calling for public funding of elections.[7][8] The organization opposed the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Citizens United v. FEC, which held that the First Amendment prohibits the government from restricting independent political expenditures by nonprofits.[6][9]

The Center's stated mission is to "work to hold our political institutions and laws accountable to the twin American ideals of democracy and equal justice for all."[10] The organization's president is Michael Waldman, former director of speechwriting for President Bill Clinton.

So, over-under at Nixon on 15% of the vote in the Democratic primary. If she's over 15%, you lose. If she's under 15% or precisely at 15.00%, I lose. Loser donates to the Brennan Center in the winner's honor. I'll take this action for any amount from $10 through $100, your choice. Deal?