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Cicada

(4,533 posts)

16. A lot of moneybal type statistical reasoning looks dumb to fans

Reply to DonViejo (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2018, 11:01 AM

Oct 2018

The odds you will give up runs increases after so many pitches. How well you did in past innings isn’t what matters. How well you are likely to do now is what matters. The late great Amos Tversky, so fucking smart they gave his partner Daniel Kahneman the Nobel prize after Amos died, taught us that people falsely believe trends are very likely to continue. In reality a lot of streaks are just accidental. The coin comes up heads ten times in a row does not mean eleven is likely. That’s Donald Chumps error here.

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Highlight:

Trump knocks Dodgers' pitching change: 'Big mistake!' [View all] DonViejo Oct 2018 OP

And conversely if the Dodgers finished the game with Rich Hill and did worse, no_hypocrisy Oct 2018 #1

Ho hum, just another day for the Dump bubble Ohiogal Oct 2018 #2

THE republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief* spouting advice for other dodger losers Achilleaze Oct 2018 #3

Could you emagine Trump participating in sports or going thu boot camp? INdemo Oct 2018 #6

Your post reminds me of Vincent D'Onofrio (Pvt Pyle) in Full Metal Jacket. Cold War Spook Oct 2018 #11

Yep I was thinking about that when I was drafting my post Your comment was INdemo Oct 2018 #12

And now he's promoted himself The Wizard Oct 2018 #4

20/20 Hindsight...0/0 Foresight AKing Oct 2018 #5

Well he was the best baseball player in New York after all. gibraltar72 Oct 2018 #7

this is his way of saying KayF Oct 2018 #8

Dementia boy never heard of planning ahead... Maxheader Oct 2018 #9

Later games? oberliner Oct 2018 #15

Like this fat fucking orange turd Racerdog1 Oct 2018 #10

He apparently was a talented pitcher when he was young and actually in shape. BlueStater Oct 2018 #17

Who asked you, Trump C_U_L8R Oct 2018 #13

In a World Series bucolic_frolic Oct 2018 #14

A lot of moneybal type statistical reasoning looks dumb to fans Cicada Oct 2018 #16

Trump thinks he is a bigly baseball coach too, along with future Nobelist & Mt Rushmore item. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2018 #18

Add Baseball Mr.Bill Oct 2018 #19

I think it's ridiculous we're disparaging him being a baseball fan and making a comment about Calista241 Oct 2018 #20

If this were any other president at any other time in history Chitown Kev Oct 2018 #21