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progree

(10,864 posts)
48. I'm working on updating this:
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:59 PM
Aug 2019

Last edited Wed Aug 21, 2019, 07:54 PM - Edit history (1)

This was created back on August 2 when the July numbers were reported:

Job growth has already slowed down in 2019 so far.
Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
191,000 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
165,000 2019 so far (January through July)
141,000 February through July 2019

Job numbers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

And yes yes, the unemployment rate is at about 50 year lows, but note that the prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate is below the pre-Great Recession average, going back to about 1987. (And it dropped another 0.2% in July)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12256909

############################################################

To revise, I guess the 501,000 revision is for the 12 month period April 1, 2018 through March 31, 2019 (9 months in 2018, and 3 months in 2019)

and like you say that's about 42,000/month average. So I'd revise the "Trump's 30 months" above by 501,000 total fewer jobs (which over 30 months comes to 16,700 fewer jobs/month average)

and revise the "2019 so far" by 501,000/12 * 3 months = 125,250 total fewer jobs (which over 7 months comes to 17,893 fewer jobs per month average)

and the "February through July 2019" by by 501,000/12 * 2 months = 83,500 fewer total jobs (which over 6 months comes to 13,917 fewer jobs per month average)

or something.

If so, it would look something like:

220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
174,300 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
147,000 2019 so far (January through July)
127,000 February through July 2019

The above isn't final -- I will have to work with the actual job numbers rather than working with the rounded averages from my first table, but should be reasonably close unless I made a big boo boo. And of course assuming that the 501,000 downward revision applies to the period April 2018 through March 2019. (and I can only assume the amount of the revision each month is the same, given no other information).

EDITED 402p ET - corrected Trump's 30 months in above from 178,000 to 174,300.

EDITED 755p ET - See post #56 -- they will be revising the 12 monthly numbers January through December of 2019
So it looks like the entire 501,000 revision (if that number holds) will all be in the 2019 numbers. So what I did above is not quite right.




Wow, that's some revision! nt Mike 03 Aug 2019 #1
Whats a half a million jobs? TheRealNorth Aug 2019 #6
BLS is lap dog for Don da Con Cryptoad Aug 2019 #40
Until a few weeks ago the Secretary of Labor FakeNoose Aug 2019 #46
I knew the lying, cheating bastards were rigging the employment numbers. democratisphere Aug 2019 #2
+1 sandensea Aug 2019 #31
Me, too. I don't believe anything that comes out of this government. Period! n/t Peregrine Took Aug 2019 #36
US Naval Observatory Master Clock Time mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #38
working url for time ... CloudWatcher Aug 2019 #41
Browser issue? mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #42
DNS issue CloudWatcher Aug 2019 #49
If they were rigging them why would they correct them? onenote Aug 2019 #52
That is HUGE! Wonder if Trump will brag about that??? ProudMNDemocrat Aug 2019 #3
Sure he will durablend Aug 2019 #13
His followers would believe he had created that many jobs DBoon Aug 2019 #45
"The current revision is one of the largest ever." Hugin Aug 2019 #4
Trumpy's minions have been cookin' the books for some time now. machoneman Aug 2019 #5
I joined a large corporation in January. lapfog_1 Aug 2019 #7
So at this point they are just straight up lying. That is more than a revision it is a SweetieD Aug 2019 #8
I don't trust any Numbers the Trump administration puts out. They will do anything to paint a rosie Meadowoak Aug 2019 #9
we've tipped off the edge and are gaining momentum as we slid toward the bottom... Javaman Aug 2019 #10
Gigantic number to make up for past lies and make room for new ones until Nov 2020 bucolic_frolic Aug 2019 #11
This would explain business closings across some flyover states ffr Aug 2019 #12
Truly hope someone missed a decimal point in the revision and it is 50,000 jobs Freethinker65 Aug 2019 #14
The whole article makes no sense ... mr_lebowski Aug 2019 #51
This article is talking about a 12-month period, not one month NickB79 Aug 2019 #53
That's not what post #25 seems to suggest ... mr_lebowski Aug 2019 #55
Is anyone really surprised that the Trump administration is caught lying yet again? cstanleytech Aug 2019 #15
I never trusted their numbers either Clarity2 Aug 2019 #16
I Can't Wait To Hear Trump's Explanation For This...... global1 Aug 2019 #17
Great catch. Thank you, UpInArms. n/t Judi Lynn Aug 2019 #18
This thread is embarrassing DrToast Aug 2019 #19
What's more, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces both the monthly jobs reports progree Aug 2019 #20
Exactly! DrToast Aug 2019 #23
Yeah pretty much qazplm135 Aug 2019 #34
Did they include all of those $1.50/hr app jobs? wolfie001 Aug 2019 #21
I'm looking for exactly what months were revised .... but in the meantime I ran across this progree Aug 2019 #22
Big thank you for your post. Wellstone ruled Aug 2019 #24
Found this from BLS.gov itself progree Aug 2019 #25
That's around 42k less jobs per month than originally thought. herding cats Aug 2019 #37
I'm working on updating this: progree Aug 2019 #48
So basically this isn't a 'jobs created' number, it's a 'total employed' number mr_lebowski Aug 2019 #54
I don't know if it's correct, but that's how I see it too ... progree Aug 2019 #56
Cookin' the books & pulling the wool over deplorable eyes. LIES, all lies. n/t slumcamper Aug 2019 #26
Sounds like the rats are abondoning the ship. Scruffy1 Aug 2019 #27
Hiring freeze at my company exboyfil Aug 2019 #28
Socialist sounding Bureau of Labor Statistics and their "seasonally adjusted" socialism IronLionZion Aug 2019 #29
Announcement 2019 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #30
Here's the job series they are talking about (the famed and storied non-farm payroll job numbers progree Aug 2019 #33
There is little left uncouched by this corrupt administration. MarkmBha1 Aug 2019 #32
How to find archived benchmark articles going back to March 2002 mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #35
Anyone trying to get a job area51 Aug 2019 #39
So if 10,000 BabyBoomers are hitting 65 every day and a bunch of them work and a bunch of them NoMoreRepugs Aug 2019 #43
You know we're in a trump recession duforsure Aug 2019 #44
Trump lying, throwing tantrums. Market up. (??!) nt wiggs Aug 2019 #47
I've said--and been shot down this is ALL SMOKE and MIRRORS BS........... Bengus81 Aug 2019 #50
Retail, restaurants and hotels....all segments that rely heavily on disposable income...that alone.. AKing Aug 2019 #57
"Fake News!" Nitram Aug 2019 #58
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