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Rule of Claw

(500 posts)
13. Which is not fair.
Wed Sep 23, 2020, 11:14 AM
Sep 2020

Because if Biden wins by 7 nationally he will likely only carry PA by 4. Which means he could be 50-50 to win the EC if he won nationally by four, like Barack did.

But now keep in mind, Hillary miscalculated and went off to AZ, and kind of assumed the blue firewall. Joe will run a campaign more similar to Barack, PA, MI, WI, all day and all of the night. so HIS four point win might show a map similar to 2012.

But if he accomplished similar results, demographic shifts show it as a 7 point win nationally. About where we are at.

So realistically Trump has no ability to keep this under 7, barring something ridiculous. And if Joe crosses low forties in any swing state with whites, he wins the state. 43 is the magic number.

Barack won FL with 37 percent of the white vote in 2012. Joe currently sits at 41. Right now he leads FL by around 3-5. PA 4-6.

Win those two NC is less relevant-I see no scenario where Joe loses Pa and wins NC. Maybe GA. But long shot.

Texas however..Wild Card.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Yes . . Iliyah Sep 2020 #1
Cook Political Report still has TX as 'leans republican'. SharonClark Sep 2020 #2
I like this site Nictuku Sep 2020 #3
Based Rule of Claw Sep 2020 #4
Put another way Rule of Claw Sep 2020 #7
That is unlikely to happen Dopers_Greed Sep 2020 #11
Which is not fair. Rule of Claw Sep 2020 #13
Agree that Texas is a wildcard Dopers_Greed Sep 2020 #16
Please, please be right. And if Joe wins here, there's a chance for MJ Hegar also. Lonestarblue Sep 2020 #9
Send lawyers guns and money lagomorph777 Sep 2020 #5
Yea StClone Sep 2020 #15
I hope so, we Texans deserve better than the current crop of cowards. walkingman Sep 2020 #6
In today's political climate, PatSeg Sep 2020 #8
Compared to the $200+ Million generated by ActBlue BlueWavePsych Sep 2020 #10
Oh yes PatSeg Sep 2020 #12
combine with GOP pulling ad buys in Houston area market beachbumbob Sep 2020 #14
Why isn't Trump campaigning in TX? Yavin4 Sep 2020 #17
I don't buy it rockfordfile Sep 2020 #18
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