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DeminPennswoods

(17,429 posts)

15. Likely voters

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 23, 2020, 01:47 PM

Sep 2020

Pollsters tend to get into trouble trying to evaluate who will turn out to vote. A DU'er posted a link to Ken Mellman talking about this and how pollsters need to figure out and poll the composition of the electorate. He stated about 20% of "likely voters" never end up voting and about 20% of "unlikely" voters do end up voting.

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Post-ABC polls: Trump and Biden in tight races in Florida, Arizona [View all] brooklynite Sep 2020 OP

That's not good. Squinch Sep 2020 #1

I agree... VarryOn Sep 2020 #11

If you know voters in AZ or FL, contact them and make sure they vote! lagomorph777 Sep 2020 #2

I did a deep dive-it looks like the random sampling was way off. Rule of Claw Sep 2020 #3

Thanks for this Mike 03 Sep 2020 #6

You are most welcome. Rule of Claw Sep 2020 #8

I think the Arizona results might be an outlier, compared to other recent polls still_one Sep 2020 #4

Biden is being hammered by dishonest Trump advertising. I don't see a campaign Doodley Sep 2020 #5

I thought he pulled most of his ads..nt helpisontheway Sep 2020 #7

Fox News and SuperPACs TomCADem Sep 2020 #13

Not really. TwilightZone Sep 2020 #9

when does Bloomberg's $100m ad buy start? dawg day Sep 2020 #10

Trump needs both to win, Biden needs neither nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #12

Trump doesn't need Arizona Polybius Sep 2020 #14

With PA, WI, and MI in the Biden column.... SoFlaBro Sep 2020 #16

PA is not in the Biden column Polybius Sep 2020 #18

But he is almost certain to lose the Rust Belt states he won by 77,000 in 2016 Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #17

We'll see Polybius Sep 2020 #19

Dem gov and SOS will not lie down for any GOP chicanery nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #20

Likely voters DeminPennswoods Sep 2020 #15