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progree

(13,036 posts)
24. Wonder what you think about nytimes World: new cases vs. new deaths
Mon Dec 20, 2021, 11:58 PM
Dec 2021

It looks like new deaths have peaked almost simultaneously with new cases for every peak in 2021 except for the current peak (new cases still going up) but new deaths have been going down since August 29 - Dec 9 and then plateauing -- the current Oct 15 - Dec 19++ new cases peak is not being reflected at all in increased deaths

NEW CASES PEAKS (in 2021): Jan 13, April 29, August 27, Dec 19 and still rising

NEW DEATHS PEAKS (in 2021): Jan 26, May 1, Aug 25.

Anyway, its strange that the first 3 peaks are almost simultaneous (I thought new deaths lagged new cases by 4-6 weeks), and then no deaths wave yet for the new wave 4th peak

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-cases.html

Scroll down past the map and the table to the 2 graphs.
the left graph - New reported cases by day
with the right graph - New reported deaths by day.

The horizontal (dates) scales are the same.
I opened a 2nd window and put the new cases one above the new deaths one.

I also got some tracing paper and drew a rough version of new cases and put it against new deaths

I also toyed with the hypothesis that maybe the new cases peaks were 3 1/2 to 4 months ahead of the new deaths peaks, e.g. the new cases peak of Jan 13 caused the new deaths peak of May 1, and so on, but doubt that and causes other issues in explaining what's going on so hypothesis rejected.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Wow. LisaL Dec 2021 #1
Jeez that's awful. Terry_M Dec 2021 #2
I posted their proportions graph from last week recently and the new one is out today BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #3
Wow, thanks for posting the data Quakerfriend Dec 2021 #4
You are welcome. At this point we will have to see if the primary vaccine series + boosters BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #6
If I'm reading those graphs right,... LudwigPastorius Dec 2021 #10
Yeah it's pretty dramatic BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #13
I suspect you'll appreciate this weighted map of omicron cases in the US. herding cats Dec 2021 #19
Only took a couple of weeks to start blowing past Delta BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #21
I saw such rumblings. herding cats Dec 2021 #25
Has anyone else seen this... flying t Dec 2021 #34
That is a spam link not "Newsweek" and you'd be best to self-delete. BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #35
The mistake is mine flying t Dec 2021 #36
It could be good IronLionZion Dec 2021 #37
Thank you for these. Wow, fast spreading Omicron. uppityperson Dec 2021 #17
You are welcome. BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #20
that was fast, hopefully it takes Delta's place completely with much less lethality. nt yaesu Dec 2021 #5
Way too soon to tell if it is less lethal. Be careful what you hope for. Ms. Toad Dec 2021 #41
73% of new cases Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Dec 2021 #7
Yes, I updated it just now after I saw that CNN updated it. milestogo Dec 2021 #9
Give it a few weeks. Igel Dec 2021 #12
That was fast. With the holidays upon us it's going to grow like a forest fire. captain queeg Dec 2021 #8
Today I saw only about half the people with masks BigmanPigman Dec 2021 #11
I just ordered some from Amazon. milestogo Dec 2021 #15
Yes, and I find that if I back up to maintain a 6 feet distance, most just step forward progree Dec 2021 #16
I remember last year when this guy went viral BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #22
Not a bad idea, it beats being intubated /nt progree Dec 2021 #23
Wonder what you think about nytimes World: new cases vs. new deaths progree Dec 2021 #24
A couple things come to mind regarding the possibilities but the most obvious BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #30
Thanks much, great graphics! I'll have to play around with some curves, and spend progree Dec 2021 #39
You are welcome! BumRushDaShow Dec 2021 #40
Priceless, 1st one is for me, I gotta have it now! Thanks.. appalachiablue Dec 2021 #28
Let's normalize social distance all the time IronLionZion Dec 2021 #38
I've been putting my mask on when I step out the door Ms. Toad Dec 2021 #42
Went to the Mall of America yesterday NickB79 Dec 2021 #14
Weighted estimates of cases per state map below. herding cats Dec 2021 #18
Isn't that an eye opener. BigmanPigman Dec 2021 #26
I wonder if you can have both? OneCrazyDiamond Dec 2021 #27
That'd be a plot for yet another horror movie about COVID, honestly. moriah Dec 2021 #33
Oh, Uggh, a very sharp 47% rise in Monday new cases over last Monday, driving 7dma up 21% progree Dec 2021 #29
First Omicron death in the US in Texas reported. Unvaxxed and had Covid before Bengus81 Dec 2021 #31
My state's active cases are back on the rise... moriah Dec 2021 #32
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