Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases

[progree]

12. Graphs (the Core CPI finally edges down on a rolling 3 month basis)

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

First the regular headline CPI number, and the regular month-by-month increases (rolling 3 months stuff comes later) :



Now the CORE CPI number that the Fed is more interested in (though actually its the CORE PCE inflation gauge that historically has been their #1 gauge of underlying inflation trend to project FUTURE inflation)



Obviously a nice move downward in June. It is actually a 0.16% increase when calculated using the actual index numbers (1.91% annualized). But is it a "one off" outlier?

CORE CPI Rolling 3 month average thru June 2023:

A rolling 3 month helps smooth out month-to-month volatility, and since 3 months is an average of 3 data points, is less likely to be dismissed as a "one off" like a single month's increase could be.



It's been stuck in the 4 to 5% range since November, but has hit the bottom of that range (4.08% annualized calculated using the actual index numbers). Still 2X the Fed's target. So yes, more rate hikes are coming (next Fed rate-setting meeting is July 26-27)

Various series:

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted