Trump immigration policies and a lower fertility rate slow US growth projection, budget office says [View all]

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Source: AP

Updated 8:42 PM EST, January 7, 2026


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. population is projected to grow by 15 million people in 30 years, a smaller estimate than in previous years, due to President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies and an expected lower fertility rate, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

The nonpartisan budget office projected that the U.S. population will grow from 349 million people this year to 364 million people in 30 years, a 2.2% smaller gain than it had predicted in 2025. In September, the office issued a revised demographics report that showed Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other strict immigration measures would result in roughly 320,000 people removed from the United States over the next 10 years.

The country’s total population is projected to stop growing in 2056 and remain roughly the same size as in the previous year, the CBO said. But without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030 as deaths start to exceed births, making immigrants an increasingly important source of population growth, according to the report.

Even if the limits on immigration and increased deportations end with the Trump administration in three years, “it’s still a demographic shock,” said William Frey, a demographer at the centrist Brookings Institution.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/immigration-trump-census-population-growth-baby-boomers-7470b270a004ae779518722488de58d4

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Link to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) site - https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879

Link to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) REPORT (PDF) - https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-01/61879-Demographic-Outlook.pdf