Last edited Tue Jan 13, 2026, 11:41 AM - Edit history (1)
Fed Watch Tool: probability of a rate cut at their January 28 meeting:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
12/12: 24.4%,
1/06: 17.7%,
1/12: 4.4%,
1/13: 5.0% (@ 8:31 am CT, one hour after the report release)
. . . 2.8% (@ 10:21 am CT) < -- ETA
I thought today's report would move the dial more than that. I suppose the KK! Brigade's explanation is that traders know the numbers are cooked, so they are essentially ignoring today's report (Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade).
ETA - well, it's moved now, but in the opposite direction from what one would expect from a tamer-than-expected inflation report. With the job market being bad, reducing rates is traditionally the way to help with that. And a tamer-than-expected inflation report reduces the probability that a small rate cut will raise inflation (even though on a year-over-year basis it's still above 2% (2.7% for headline number, 2.6% for core).
The rolling 3 month average is (just taking the numbers from their tables when I select for 3 month average, and multiplying by 4 to annualize, so is kinda crude and one-digit accuracy):
CPI: 0.5% over 3 months, annualizes to 2.0%
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Choose the "More Formatting Options" link on the upper right
On the page that shows up, check the "3-Month Percent Change" checkbox
Click the "Retrieve Data" button
Core CPI: 0.4% over 3 months, annualizes to 1.6%
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
S&P 500 futures down 0.11% (so essentially no detectable reaction above the usual noise)
ETA - S&P 500 down 0.19% at 10:33 AM CT
(from my original post) "Oil hits $65 as geopolitical risks swirl from Iran to Black Sea" -- a headline I saw with a 40 minutes ago time stamp (it closed yesterday at $60.65, it has been in the high 50's in the days before that)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-edges-higher-trump-vows-060208473.html
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