California residents, businesses consider bailing on Golden State over taxes

[Igel]

40. Probably won't happen.

It wouldn't have the effect you say, anyway. Since Clinton, if you're in the top few % you're more likely to be (D). It's an outdated stereotype that the rich are all (R). They're far from being all (D), but they swing that way since 2008 or before.

An out-migration of the nouveau riche would have another effect, however: With a sharply progressive income tax you get more tax revenue from a $2 million income than from 40 $50k incomes. A lot more. Even the US government gets more from the top 1 or 5% than the amount of income received by the top 1 or 5%.

Part of CA's tax problem was precisely this. The top 10% took nearly 50% of the recession's hit to income. The progressiveness of the income tax structure in CA made the income tax revenue stream take a disproportionate hit. Nothing made for reduced expenditures, however.

Same thing happened to NY in 2001/2002. The 'exuberance" of the stock market bubble under Clinton had produced huge bonuses on Wall Street, with commensurately huge tax payments to Albany. With the bonuses smashed to pieces, the huge tax payments ceased. NY State had assumed that that income stream would be permanent and built it into the budget on an on-going basis. Smashing the bonuses smashed the NYS budget.