Syrian army, Hezbollah attack rebels in border town: opposition

[pampango]

32. No it is not "either Assad or al Qaeda." That's the line Assad has been selling since this started.

It the same line that the Shah used when he was the 'royal' ruler of Iran and the West bought it. (His version was slightly different - "It's me or the fundamentalists.&quot The Shah was a 'secular' dictator (extremely brutal, but relatively secular). Did the strategy of supporting a 'secular' dictator in order to hold off the religious theocrats end up working in Iran? Perhaps we should have urged the Shah and his army to plunge Iran into a civil war in order to try to defeat Khomeini and maintain the Shah's 'royal' rule.



http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2013/05/14/63221/the-structure-and-organization-of-the-syrian-opposition/

Al Qeada's fighters (Jabhat al-Nusra) in Syria are less than 10% of the total of the opposition. Are they a potent fighting force? You bet. Can they cause a lot of chaos with their terrorism? You bet. Does that mean that the choice in Syria is "Assad or al Qaeda"? No.

The fact is that Assad is a nasty piece of work who will destroy Syria in order to remain in power. The fact is that there are many Syrians who do not want to live under either a dictator or a theocracy. The fact is that the nasty side of the opposition gains strength as the civil war goes on. The fact is that Assad is a smart man who knows the Middle East and knew, when he decided to stay in power at all costs, this would happen if his army did not win a quick victory. The fact is that there is nothing we can do about any of this other than provide aid to refugees - anything else will make a terrible situation for the Syrian people even worse.

The concept that "we should support Assad because the other side has an even worse faction" in essence rewards Assad for dragging Syria into a civil war. When this started in March 2011 the other side did not have "an even worse faction". The demonstrations for democratizing the government were massive and largely peaceful. Many of the demonstrators were not advocating Assad's removal, just the opening up of the government.

As a smart man, Assad knew that 'opening up' the government was not good for his long term job security. Repressing the opposition with his security apparatus and army had always worked in the past. If it failed to work quickly, the worst that could happen would be a civil war and he had one of the largest, most powerful militaries in the region. As a smart man, he knew that a civil war would likely attract a very violent segment to the opposition. He is smart and he was right.