'Point of no return': A research firm says the oil market is headed for a dire turning point [View all]

[Dulcinea]

(Business Insider) Market watchers have puzzled over the reasons for oil's resilience in recent weeks, but things could be about to change for the worse, one research firm is warning.

HFI Research, an investment research firm with a focus on energy markets, said it sees the oil market hitting a major turning point in the first week of June. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through that time, oil markets will likely descend into "real panic," it said, suggesting that nations around the world could start panic-buying and hoarding oil as oil inventories hit rock bottom.

The scenario — which HFI said wasn't its base-case — is contrary to where most forecasters think the crude market is headed. The firm pointed to more optimistic oil forecasts about how the market would soon normalize, but those predictions are likely fueled by "psychological biases" in the oil market, it said.

"It seems clear to me that if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by the first week of June, we will see real panic," the firm wrote in a Substack post on Monday of the coming turning point in markets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/point-no-return-research-firm-123639885.html