Ukraine (Socialist Progressives Group)

[joshcryer]

18. I think a "true worker's government" there is unlikely.

What Ukraine needs to do is refuse Russia's "debt for equity swaps" plan that they used in Belarus (with great success; forcing a country to be perpetually indebted and subservient). This is the Iceland approach, put everyone in jail who is in the top of government and who got rich by it. Default. Start over. If Russia wants to send gas through the country, then they must pay and charge fair market prices.

The problem is, unlike Iceland, which is very energy independent, Ukraine needs gas for industry. They're fucked if they can't get it, one bad winter without gas, a lot of people die, the economy tanks. Russia knows this. Russia has been planning this (Google "Russia–Ukraine gas disputes"; in 2009 Ukraine lost nearly half its GDP overnight!).

The east is going to be more and more culturally tied with Russia, whose oligarchs literally run the show, and it will be very difficult for any workers parties in eastern Ukraine to develop without being subjugated to the whims of the oligarchs, just as it has had problems dealing with the plutocrats. In particular there were no real uprisings in the east against the government, when ideally we'd see workers stand up against corrupt officials.

I think that Russia's efforts to meddle are going to cause a polarizing effect, where one could only claim maybe 10% of the opposition were Nazi's or fascists, you will wind up seeing a much larger number.