Tonight’s Win Is Not Likely To Help Sanders

[SunSeeker]

10. Yup, it's about the votes, and Sanders will never get enough to catch up.

Those spreads I list are the numbers Nate Silver et al. calculated that Sanders would have to win the vote by in order to get the necessary number of delegates to be on track for a majority. Since the delegates aren't awarded strictly proportionately but by precinct or district, if the vote is even moderately close, then the delegate count will be nearly tied.

Indiana is overwhelmingly white. Sanders won, but barely. Given the former, the latter was, at this point in the race, absolutely predicable. Right on the regression line.

Moreover, because Sanders needed to do better than a near-tie, he would now need to get 70% rather than 66% of the remaining votes, to tie — not win, tie — in the pledged delegate races. I emphasize: Sanders is in worse shape than he was in yesterday.

And CA is 39% white. Sanders is not going to get 70% of the remaining votes.