http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17291359
HARRY ENTEN 9:44 PM
Tonight’s Win Is Not Likely To Help Sanders
According to a demographic model published last week by Nate, Sanders was expected to win the state of Indiana by 7 percentage points. That’s about the size of his lead right now. Indeed, you can look at the exit polls and see that Clinton is holding onto the demographic groups she usually wins. For instance, she is beating Sanders among black voters by 52 percentage points. That’s actually slightly better than she did among black voters in New York.
I know that some people will think tonight’s polling error in favor of Sanders could be predictive of errors to come. As I pointed out in a different post, it’s actually par for the course so far in this primary. It’s nothing like the Michigan polling error we saw earlier in the campaign. Sanders will need far larger polling errors going forward to have a shot at the nomination.
As I said at the top, Sanders will continue to fight on, and he will win votes. He looks like the favorite in the West Virginia primary, for example, which is coming up next. He’ll also do well in the remaining states in the middle of the country. Still, it looks like Clinton and Trump are going to be the nominees of their party.
DATE STATE OR TERRITORY NO. ELECTED DELEGATES SANDERS’S PATH-TO-2,026 PROJECTION POPULAR VOTE MARGIN NEEDED TO REACH TARGET
May 3 Indiana 83 53 Sanders +28
May 7 Guam 7 4 Sanders +14
May 10 West Virginia 29 21 Sanders +45
May 17 Oregon 61 49 Sanders +61
Kentucky 55 36 Sanders +31
June 4 Virgin Islands 7 4 Sanders +14
June 5 Puerto Rico 60 36 Sanders +20
June 7 California 475 299 Sanders +26
New Jersey 126 73 Sanders +16
New Mexico 34 20 Sanders +18
Montana 21 18 Sanders +71
South Dakota 20 15 Sanders +50
North Dakota 18 15 Sanders +67
June 14 D.C. 20 10 Tie
What Sanders’s path to 2,026 will look like if Tuesday polls are right
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]Based on these estimates, Sanders would need to beat Clinton by 26 percentage points in California, 28 points in Indiana and 16 points in New Jersey, all states where he trails Clinton in polling averages. He’d also need to win Western states like Oregon and Montana by 50 or more percentage points. No matter how much creative, mind-bending math they might be tempted to apply, Sanders and his campaign might have to “re-evaluate” his position in the race.
True, even an unexpectedly good day today wouldn’t help Sanders in the delegate count all that much. Suppose he splits pledged delegates with Clinton 192-192, perhaps as the result of upset wins in Pennsylvania and Connecticut. He’d still have to win 61.6 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to claim the majority.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/today-is-clintons-chance-to-end-the-groundhog-day-campaign/
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