New CA Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Leading Sanders by 2 Points, Um, Right [View all]

[Iamaartist]

http://hinterlandgazette.com/2016/05/new-ca-poll-shows-hillary-clinton-leading-sanders-2-points-cross-tabs-questionable.html

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in the California Democratic primary by two points, 46% to 44%. Right

I guess 16 points just disappeared in the space of a few days. A Survey USA poll showed Clinton with an 18-point lead over Sanders on Monday. A Real Clear Politics poll average shows Clinton with an 8-point advantage. In other words, she’s heading for a win.

Further, I dug into the cross-tabs of the PPIC poll and found some interesting tidbits — not much gender gap for starters. Clinton leads by 6 points among white voters and 9 points among Hispanic voters. Then, unless Bernie Sanders is leading her with black, Asian and other minority voters, this poll cannot be this close.

One more point — 23% of the sample was neither white nor Hispanic. Sanders had to be leading in those groups by at least 15% to bring the spread down to a 2% lead by Clinton. Sanders would need to win really, really big in California. There hasn’t been a single poll that shows him with the capability of winning by any margin. In fact, he would need to carry California by 70 percent to get most of the delegates. Hillary’s margin is much lower. I wish reporters would drill down and look closely at the polling fundamentals before saying the race is a dead heat.

I would also revisit Ohio and New York. The polls had both races close and then look what happened — landslide. Bernie Sanders has never won a large diverse state and I don’t expect him to do that at the end of the primary season. Either way, Hillary Clinton is within 78 -now 74 delegates of clinching the nomination.

Um, Bernie, good luck with that “charity” debate with Donald Trump. I hope you know he’ll set the terms and that won’t be to your advantage. That’s assuming it really happens. Trump has said a lot of things…..




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reporters not telling the truth...