http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

[Her Sister]

4. GOP needed numbers tonite to have a good night

"DAVID WASSERMAN 6:28 PM
According to FiveThirtyEight’s handy new delegate interactive, Trump needs about 225 delegates in tonight’s contests to be “on track” to win 1,237 — a majority — of convention delegates by June. By contrast, Cruz needs 302 delegates (mostly because his route runs through his home state of Texas), while Rubio needs only about 203.

However, given Trump’s dominance so far, winning only 225 delegates tonight would have to be considered something of a disappointment for his backers. What would a really terrific Trump night look like? I’d argue that he would need to win more than 300 of the 595 available to look dominant. What would an OK/unsurprising night look like? Probably between 250 and 300.

How about a disappointing night for Trump? That probably means anything less than 250, which would open the door for Rubio or someone else to overtake him in later winner-take-all states. Fellow data nerds: agree or disagree on these over/unders?"