Hillary Clinton

yardwork

(69,122 posts)

19. Welcome to our world, and thank you for the thoughtful analysis.

Fri Mar 11, 2016, 10:52 AM

Mar 2016

I'm in NC and I think Hillary will do better here than you predict, but not as well as she's done in many other southern states.

Here's my reasoning - NC has a more limited kind of open primary than MI. Also, we have fewer independents than MI. We have very few unions. There just isn't the grassroots GOTV among independents here that they have in the Great Lakes states.

NC also has strong blue college communities - more than SC - and that will help Sanders.

For the reasons I give above, I fear that Hillary will do worse than you predict in OH and IL. I hope I'm wrong, but I believe that the Great Lakes may turn out to be Bernie country for now. This is because Bernie's economic message resonates with the rust belt libertarian independents there. I'm from OH, my mom is from MI - I know how they think. The danger is that these same folks will Freak Out when they learn more about Bernie's history. They would vote Trump in the GE.

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I've literally never posted here (as you all can attest) and was accused of being a plant [View all] Recursion Mar 2016 OP

Missouri seems to be a black hole of polling, no one knows who is doing what there. I think.... George II Mar 2016 #1

Right? MO is the big unknown Recursion Mar 2016 #2

I'm in Missouri, and I really don't Loki Mar 2016 #3

Polling has been gone since August, right? Recursion Mar 2016 #4

Nothing, but right now 11 of the 13 Super Delegates Loki Mar 2016 #15

Loki, like your son did, I wish more voters would pause and take a closer look at Bernie. kstewart33 Mar 2016 #7

That was his biggest turning point and he was a big Bernie supporter. Loki Mar 2016 #22

My son came to the same conclusion. yardwork Mar 2016 #25

I think your analysis is right on. kstewart33 Mar 2016 #5

MO will be quite interesting (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #6

Good job and pleased to meet you! pandr32 Mar 2016 #8

I think NC is a hair more liberal than Tennessee CanonRay Mar 2016 #9

NC I think is solid Clinton; IL is to me the big question Recursion Mar 2016 #10

As you know Recusion this is Hillary's Group.. not really interested in anyone in here Cha Mar 2016 #14

'Scuse me for trying to be rational CanonRay Mar 2016 #16

You do have the whole rest of the board. What is it about Hillary's Group for her supporters Cha Mar 2016 #18

Was I hoping for that? (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #23

I was talking about bringing others in .. BS supporters. I already explained Cha Mar 2016 #27

Got it. I'll leave it at this thread Recursion Mar 2016 #30

I'm not worried.. just setting the boundaries. Anyone would do that. Cha Mar 2016 #31

I vote to let him stay. At least we can talk to him. yardwork Mar 2016 #26

I'm not going to block Recursion.. just wanted to remind him that this is our Group for Cha Mar 2016 #28

That's cool. That's how we roll. yardwork Mar 2016 #37

Well, I hope not. 'this is Hillary's Group for her Supporters. Thank you. Cha Mar 2016 #13

I have a different take on Ohio dcbuckeye Mar 2016 #11

Huh. It's an interesting thought. Recursion Mar 2016 #12

Good point about Kasich. I hope you're right. yardwork Mar 2016 #20

Yeah, Kasich's presence will be really interesting... Recursion Mar 2016 #24

I feel good about FL, NC & IL book_worm Mar 2016 #17

Ohio is a tad more centrist Treant Mar 2016 #39

Welcome to our world, and thank you for the thoughtful analysis. yardwork Mar 2016 #19

Could well be. So much of this polling is weak Recursion Mar 2016 #21

I have no problems with you! BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #29

Very fair analysis rock Mar 2016 #32

That's a fair point Recursion Mar 2016 #33

I'm sorry you are catching flack from the vocal majority. Lucinda Mar 2016 #34

I'm sticking with 538. eom fleabiscuit Mar 2016 #35

Are the 538 targets campaign generated, or is that 548's analysis? LuvLoogie Mar 2016 #36

538 generates Treant Mar 2016 #40

I think the margins will be wider in NC and MO. Chichiri Mar 2016 #38

Welcome, from another O'Malley supporter. DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #41

Remember this about ohio dcbuckeye Mar 2016 #42