I've literally never posted here (as you all can attest) and was accused of being a plant

[BlueMTexpat]

29. I have no problems with you!

I have never seen you post deliberate slurs against any candidate. If Hillary had not run in 2016, I would have been a MOM supporter myself as he was my guv.

While I believe that your predictions may be a tad generous to Sanders overall in light of the strong polling for Hillary where polls exist, they are as good guesstimates as any and you have given good reasons for them.

But even your final results highlight the bottom line problem for Sanders. Already Clinton has 200+ delegates and the results you predict will only increase that margin.

In later primaries - unless there is a sea change somewhere - Bernie will likely win in the Pacific Northwest (I include MT in that, btw), but Hillary will still pick up delegates and most likely meet, possibly even exceed, her target goals per 538 projections. Despite Tulsi Gabbard's defection to Bernie, I believe that Hillary will win in HI because she is closely tied to Prez O and Prez O is very popular in his birth state. I understand that Gabbard is not nearly as popular.

Per the 538 target goals, Hillary can afford losses in WI, WY and UT. She can even afford not to meet her TGs there. Bernie cannot. In EVERY state he wins, he MUST also achieve the TG #s in delegates. If not, he falls further and further behind - even with the wins. If he does not exceed those TGs, it's literally all over. Hillary will do very well in most of the remaining states; all she has to do is to meet the 538 TGs. Bernie MUST win.

March 15th will be pretty telling. If Hillary has an outstanding day and exceeds the numbers that you predict for her, then the rest of the primary season will be mostly about her winning margin. If she merely meets her TGs, it's much the same. Only if she loses everywhere - and even then by large margins - would there be any possibility for Bernie's campaign to catch up in pledged delegates.

While that could still happen, it is highly unlikely. But it doesn't mean that any of us who support HRC can rest on our laurels, like those MI voters who thought Hillary would win and so voted in the GOPer primary instead. Every vote counts. And our candidate will not take any one for granted.