IF HRC wins FL, OH, & NC it will be a very good night [View all]

[book_worm]

even if Illinois and Missouri were to go narrowly to Bernie.

First, Florida is looking good. It is a closed primary and lots of early votes have already been cast and most polls show that HRC is leading. NBC and CBS both have polls out today with HRC having a substantial lead of better than 20 points.

Ohio--NBC has a poll with HRC up by 20 & CBS by 9. My feeling is that CBS is closer to the truth.

North Carolina--so far the polls have been very good here, too, for HRC and Bernie has pretty much ceded the state.

Why we should be pleased with winning these three states? 1) In the General Election Florida and Ohio are always considered the key swing states and if HRC wins them both (no matter how narrowly) then she has bragging rights. 2) North Carolina has been very competitive as well in the last couple of elections and it is African-American voters who accomplish that--HRC is going to do very well with this group in NC on Tuesday.

Now as for Illinois--NBC has HRC up by 5 and CBS down by 2--so it looks like it will likely be very close. It comes down to GOTV. We need to get out a strong African-American turnout. The CBS poll had turnout among AA in their poll at only 14%. In 2008 it was 23%. If we can get it up to the high teens or 20% of the democratic electorate HRC might win. On the other hand--the kids in Illinois, particularly, Chicago, are enthused because Trump is labeling Bernie and his supporters as the reason for the recent riot at his Chicago rally & so that is getting a lot of play. Furthermore, Illinois will be with the Democratic nominee, no matter who, in November.

Missouri--The only poll I've seen from this state recently came out yesterday and gave HRC a 7-point lead. Again, I think MO is going to be close. There are fewer African-American voters and it's close to states like Kansas where Bernie has performed well before. I'm not saying we won't win it, but it will, I think, be very close.

Long story short--we will no doubt end the night winning more delegates than Bernie--no matter what. Other than that it comes down to GOTV.