Why no one here should be concerned about the upcoming contests in western [View all]

[pnwmom]

Last edited Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:29 PM - Edit history (1)

and northern state primaries and caucuses.

First, none of these contests involve large numbers of delegates.

But even if Bernie takes every single delegate from the March 22 – April 9th primaries and caucuses (most of which are closed), he still wouldn’t close the 300+ gap in delegates that he’s facing now.

If, more realistically, he did as well as Obama in 2008, he’d pick up about 60 delegates more than Hillary in the March 22 – April 9 primaries/caucuses (leaving him more than 250 delegates behind) before entering the large, diverse, primary states like New York, where she is extremely well positioned . . . though with her current delegate lead, she has a large cushion to protect against unexpected losses.

In the list below, the last pair of numbers for each primary/caucus shows how many pledged delegates went to Obama/Clinton in 2008. (By the time of these races all the other candidates had dropped out, so it was a two-candidate race.)

Tue, Mar 22 Arizona Closed 25/31

Tue, Mar 22 Idaho Caucus Closed 15/3

Tue, Mar 22 Utah Closed 14/9

Sat, Mar 26 Alaska Caucus Closed 9/4

Sat, Mar 26 Hawaii Caucus Closed 14/6

Sat, Mar 26 Washington Caucus Closed 52/26

Tue, Apr 5 Wisconsin Open 42/32

Sat, Apr 9 Wyoming Caucus 7/5


http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/#yf2PE6zmimgdBLW4.99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008