Hillary Clinton

Her Sister

(6,444 posts) Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:20 AM Mar 2016

Nate Silver on Math [View all]

NATE SILVER 12:03 AM

Sanders’s Tough Math ~There are 131 pledged delegates at stake tonight for Democrats. It’s going to be hard for Sanders to win a majority of those given that Arizona has most of the delegates and Clinton is winning big there, but it’s not impossible if he crushes it in Utah and Idaho. So let’s say he almost does it. Clinton gets 66 delegates on the night and Sanders gets 65.

That would get Sanders up to 920 pledged delegates, while Clinton would have 1,242, with 1,889 pledged delegates still outstanding. Skipping a little bit of math, but Sanders would need 59 percent of the remaining total to tie Clinton in pledged delegates. That’s really difficult to do; it would be equivalent to beating Clinton by 18 percentage points the rest of the way out. Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

19 replies

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Nate Silver on Math [View all] Her Sister Mar 2016 OP

We can make informed predictions Her Sister Mar 2016 #1

No answers yet to this question posted in the Bernie group Kaleva Mar 2016 #3

0 replies, 119 views NurseJackie Mar 2016 #7

One view was mine Treant Mar 2016 #8

I just kicked it back to the top. Kaleva Mar 2016 #9

LOL SunSeeker Mar 2016 #10

Kaleva will probably be banned for that! :-P NurseJackie Mar 2016 #11

Yes I have and the OP has been deleted. Kaleva Mar 2016 #13

Bernbabe shouldn't have deleted the post. At worst the only thing they could ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #14

I'm banned member #306 and he's #307 Kaleva Mar 2016 #15

I got blocked from the Sanders group yesterday after only one reply. LiberalFighter Mar 2016 #19

It's all about the math liberal N proud Mar 2016 #2

K&R! stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #4

Then there is this, while still awaiting last BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #5

I expect the majority of the super delegates to go to Hillary and if any are going to change it will Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #6

"Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point." Tarheel_Dem Mar 2016 #12

April 19 and 26 are going to be dark days for him. Dawson Leery Mar 2016 #16

Fingers & toes crossed. Tarheel_Dem Mar 2016 #18

Better than Nate Silver on meth. Codeine Mar 2016 #17