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progree

(13,018 posts)
10. S&P 500: election day close: 2140, last close before inauguration day: 2264
Wed Mar 18, 2020, 02:31 PM
Mar 2020

Last edited Wed Mar 18, 2020, 10:19 PM - Edit history (2)

So S&P 500 is still above those points, 2288 at 229 pm ET. 1% more down and the inauguration day one is breached.

2288 is 32.4% below the February 19 peak.

(I read a bear market begins at 20% down, and a "collapse" at 40% down. I don't know what 30% down is called... but whatever it is, we've breached that).

S&P 500 peak-to-trough, the 3 biggest ones since the Great Depression:
1973-75: -48%
2000-2001: -49%
2007-2009: -57%

It took 7.5, 7.2, and 5.5 years respectively peak-to-peak to recover from these, i.e. the number of years from the peak before the dive to get back to that peak again.

(S&P 500 is far more representative of U.S. stocks overall and what people own on average and in what weightings than the Dow, which isn't even very representative of the 30 stocks in it -- its price-weighted, how silly)

Oh, I forgot to mention - these are index values only. They don't include dividends. The S&P 500 yield has been around 1.7%/year during the Trump years, so that makes his slightly-above-water index performance look a little bit better. And the depths of the dives are a little less, and recovery times are a little less than shown above, when dividends are considered.

Edited to add: S&P 500 closed Wednesday March 18 at 2398, down 29.2% from its peak.

Pretend you are Jacques Cousteau taking deep dives in lovely bright sparkling tropical waters.

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