Of course, we're all going to live in an EV nirvana so there's no need to read this paper. [View all]

[NNadir]

The paper is: Uncertain Future of American Lithium: A Perspective until 2050 (Alessio Miatto, Paul Wolfram, Barbara K. Reck, and Thomas E. Graedel Environmental Science & Technology 2021 55 (23), 16184-16194)

The paper has four lithium supply scenarios, the two of which sound like something I know being these:

2.1.3. Lithium Scenario 3: Adaptation Challenges

The Adaptation Challenges scenario is developed upon SSP4, in which affluent countries invest in environmental protection programs but international cooperation is minimal, leaving each country to solve its own problems. Countries like the United States have enough expenditure capacity to support the adoption of EVs and clean energy grids, but on a global scale, the adoption of low-carbon solutions is inconsistent and insufficient to meet the climate change goals. Lithium use and associated new technologies grow in wealthy countries, but lithium recycling is not sought after because mining and associated environmental impacts occur in other countries.

2.1.4. Lithium Scenario 4: Fossil Fuel Everything

This scenario is built upon SSP5, in which nonrenewable energy sources dominate future demand. There are little to no incentives to promote the adoption of electric vehicles. Lithium use grows moderately, pushed by affluent environmentally conscious citizens rather than public policies. Lithium recycling is neglected because of the modest sales numbers of EVs and PVs with energy storage systems.

Don't worry, be happy. They'll be plenty of lithium and plenty of cobalt and nickel too, not only to build billions of Tesla cars to drive to Space X platforms for trips to the moon as well as to build that pile of batteries the size of Mount Whitney in California in order to cover those periods, of which many have occurred in recent weeks, where all the wind turbines in California spread over thousands of square miles can't produce as much energy as Diablo Canyon produces on 12 acres of land.

Enjoy the workweek.