Extinction of all life on Earth scheduled for 2031-2051

[kurt_cagle]

71. Caveats

I think the above is, admittedly, a worst case scenario, albeit, a disturbingly plausible one. There are other feedback loops - we cause the North Atlantic conveyer to stop due to a massive infusion of fresh water into the North Atlantic, and we will see increasing numbers of arctic winters in Europe and North America west of the Rockies. This may solve two problems - as it will start increasing the albedo of the planet and will start to wash hydrocarbon compounds out of the atmosphere. It will also start a new ice age. This means that we don't set ourselves up for as severe a set of storms down the road, but it causes many of the same kinds of civilization ending problems that too much heat does.

I do think that in almost any scenario, we will see a regression of civilization. I don't believe that a technological solution will get us out of it. I think there is a very real likelihood that the global population a hundred years from now may be anywhere from five to five hundred times smaller than today. This means that many people will die of causes other than old age between now and then. I also don't believe the 1% are preparing - maybe a small percentage, but most of them are far too invested in the world as it exists right now. In the event of a civilization collapse, many of these people will be killed off by the leaders of their individual private armies, or in increasingly bloody territorial wars. (Think about Romney for a bit, then think about how likely he is to be prepared for the end of the world as he knows it. Nah, doesn't work for me either).

We're going to see a lot of social experimentation in the next hundred years as people and communities attempt to adapt and survive. My suspicion is that the survivalist mindset will go by the wayside pretty quickly - the ones with their ammo and five year supply of beans will be seen as the dangerous ones, and will in general be excluded from any communal development. In the end, we will survive or we won't, but we won't if we don't recognize the real risks we face now.