A teacher/blogger on systems science and climate change [View all]

[GliderGuider]

I just ran into this fellow. He definitely knows what he's talking about.

His name is Alder Stone:

PhD, Evolutionary Biology & Ecology, 1990, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
MS, Probability Theory & Mathematical Statistics, 1984, University of Memphis
MS, Biological Systematics, 1976, University of Memphis
BS, Invertebrate Biology , 1973, University of Memphis

Why large-scale climate change (probably) cannot be stopped (& we must, thus, increase our adaptability)

The large majority of people addressing the issue of climate change – at least those not still in denial about it, including scientists, activists and policy makers – still assert that we can stop global heating – and thus, large-scale climate change – by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Bill McKibben’s organization 350.org is a notable example.

But is that a fact supported by science or an unsupported assumption? To my knowledge, no one has justified that assertion with any argument based in science, especially the systems sciences, with any data or any model. It appears to be an assumption, an article of faith.

Furthermore, like Lovelock, I think that this will very likely be Earth’s largest climate change event in 55 million years with the capacity to collapse civilization as we know it and lead to a huge reduction in human population by century’s end.

Importantly, one must not focus on any single piece of evidence, but on the whole set of interrelated factors. A system-level understanding is imperative. Work toward both a rational understand and an intuitive grasp of this with multiple readings and study. I offer multiple introductory and advanced seminars and short courses designed to help anyone with any background understand our climate system and climate change more deeply via systems sciences and geophysiology, which we must do if we are to increase our adaptability and survive as a species. I am especially eager to teach these concepts to educators, students, policy makers and food growers.

He goes on to list 11 factors that must be considered when evaluating our climate problem, including: the limited number of stable climate states (basically two); tipping points; feedbacks (all positive, no negative); CO2 increase is accelerating; CO2 residence time; methane; heating lag time (hysteresis); melting ice caps; heating oceans make the algae unhappy; forests switching from CO2 sinks to sources; aerosol masking. It's a pretty complete list.

He makes the point that the IPCC models suck at feedbacks, and he sides with Lovelock on the probable severity of the outcome: a desert globe except for north of the Arctic Circle.

He offers good suggestions on personal adaptation and honest hope here:
http://alderstone3.com/?page_id=1176

He's worth a read.