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happyslug

(14,779 posts)
7. This assumes no check on fossil fuel production
Wed Jul 17, 2013, 02:35 PM
Jul 2013

And that is unlikely. Peak oil groups have long maintain that use of fossil fuel will decline do to LACK OF FOSSIL FUEL before we get to deep in the hole on Global Warming. Shale oil is hard to mind and sooner or later becomes an energy sink (i.e, we have to install solar panels or Nuclear plants to convert the shale oil to conventional oil OR quit mining the stuff to be used as fuel for it would take more energy to obtain oil from most Shale Oil then the energy we get from the shale oil).

As to deep oil, those oil fields are quite small, average life span is just 18 months, it is expected to expand till 2017, then go into repaid decline. Coal production is also expected to peak within the next 30 years, so by 2050 restraints to global warming due to lack of fossil fuel to burn will prevent most of the above from happening.

http://www.apogeeprime.com/prime/extracts/release.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

Now, economists reject the whole concept of Peak Oil, for to economists if you have a shortage of something, the price will go up till people are unwilling to pay and the shortage is gone (i.e. physical shortages are NOT economic shortages, price will be where demand and supply meet, even if that is higher then what 99% of the population can afford).

The geologists are the main force behind peak oil, for it is they job to find the oil and according to what they know (including where to look) peak oil either occurred in 2005 or will occur in 2015. At that point total oil production will decline and do so for about 140 years, then 99.99% of the oil will be gone. Peak oil is where 50% of all oil is gone, most of the first 50% of any product is the easy to obtain and use part of a product, the last 50% is much harder to obtain. Thus deep oil and shale oil is part of the 50% that is hard to obtain and thus costly.

Peak Coal and Natural Gas will also occur in the next 30 years. Given the nature of Natural Gas predictions of its peak is the least reliable, 2030 is the year the US Energy Information center gives for peak Natural gas:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_gas#Russia

Natural gas production is considered the least reliable for oil is converted to natural Gas by the heat of the earth if the oil goes below about 20,000 feet, a level the oil industry could drill to in 1938. Natural Gas can be found as deep as 100,000 feet and wells that deep are a recent development.

Peak coal is even more complex, the US passed peaked coal IN TERM OF ENERGY FROM THE COAL in 1998, but has increased the amount of coal it has mined and can do so till 2150. The reason for this is the remaining coal is NOT as rich in energy as the coal mined up to now. The declining energy output from coal will lead to stoppage of its mining well before 2150, like other peak energy sources, once the energy to mine the material exceeds the energy one gets from what is being extracted, production tends to stop. i.e. you do NOT burn two tons of coal to mine out one ton of coal.

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Report_Coal_10-07-2007ms.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2007-05-21/peak-coal-sooner-you-think

Just a comment that worse case scenario for global warming may never occur, due to a lack of carbon based fossil fuel to leave that much carbon into the atmosphere. Global warming is still something we must fight for, but remember it is part of the energy usage in the World and thus peak oil and global warming are interconnected. One influences the other big time.

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