The Death of Peak Oil (at least for now)

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. "worst-case thinking" bias (AKA “doomer” bias)

The “doomer” bias failed to account for humans’ adaptability.

The “peak oil” theory was not wrong per se. The amount of oil in the ground did not change, however the amount of “recoverable” oil did. This is a matter of definition.

The amount of “recoverable” oil changed, because economic factors made it profitable to produce oil (e.g. “tar sands” oil) which, in the past could not be produced at a profit. (i.e. it’s not as if Canada just discovered the tar sands, it’s just that before now, there was a lot of oil which was easier/cheaper to produce.)

It is this same “doomer” bias that leads you to conclude that the Earth is only capable of sustainably supporting a tiny fraction of today’s population.

… I suspect that as a result some of us harbored a desire that it should all come to an end, no matter what the human cost might be. Most of us never expressed that desire - it's not socially acceptable after all - so we repressed it and instead channeled our mental energy into validating our catastrophist biases.

…

I believe this is just plain wrong. In my opinion, then and now, this desire was expressed and continues to be expressed.