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-misanthroptimist

(1,609 posts)
7. You don't have to wait to know you're wrong about 2050.
Thu Jul 22, 2021, 08:34 AM
Jul 2021

You are. And it can be demonstrated in this very thread.

A.1. Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming
above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. (high confidence) (Figure SPM.1) {1.2}

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/

It should be remembered that the IPCC is based on consensus, not majority or super-majority, so it tends to understatement.

It takes a while, roughly 25-30 years, between the time of CO2 emission and the full effects of the warming it causes. So even if we stopped emitting CO2 this very day, the warming would continue until the mid-2040s or early 2050s for the effects of what we've already put out there. (It is only now that we are feeling the full effects of the CO2 we emitted in the 1990s. Of course, subsequent emissions are added to that, too). The rate of warming ( ~0.2C/decade) coupled with the 1C of warming already measured and adding in the lag time, it is simple arithmetic to see that we will top 1.5C around 2050. (It probably will be sooner than that due to feedbacks and the fact that the numbers so far used are best case).

The level of technology needed to be discovered, worked into a usable design, and deployed widely and quickly enough to have a useful effect in time to avert the worst effects is staggering. It is almost certainly impossible, barring some discovery so fundamental that it has a sizeable effect on our understanding of physics generally. That seems highly unlikely. Technology got us here, but it won't get us out at this stage -at least not in time to save hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people.

Mass suicide is the course the oil companies chose for us. They've known for decades that this was coming. They argued. They obfuscated. They lied. And they did all that so they could make a bit more profit for a bit longer. They are mankind's greatest monsters.

Recommendations

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Spooky BootinUp Jul 2021 #1
In the immortal words of Bender: -misanthroptimist Jul 2021 #2
LOL I thought you were going to say... Javaman Jul 2021 #3
The insurmountable problem will occur -misanthroptimist Jul 2021 #4
very good observation. Javaman Jul 2021 #5
Read about Mr Malthus SCantiGOP Jul 2021 #6
You don't have to wait to know you're wrong about 2050. -misanthroptimist Jul 2021 #7
Latest Discussions»Culture Forums»Science»Scientists stunned by rar...»Reply #7