Historic Intrade breakthrough investors now pick Obama 2:1 over Romney (updated) [View all]

[grantcart]

Last edited Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:18 PM - Edit history (1)

edited to add new numbers

Obama at 59.3 and Romney at 27.5% the collapse continues.


https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326


At 9:49 Obama was at 59.0 and Romney was at 29.3 establishing a 2:1 ratio on investors of Obama over Romney.

Prchasing Obama at 59.0 you stand to only make 41 cents on an Obama victory while a Romney victory would net your 71 cents.

But what makes it such a staggering number is that it can be traded on a daily basis and with all of the variables you have to think that at some point Romney would likely to have at least a 1 in 3 chance to win and you could sell it at that time. I am 100% convinced that the President is going to have a strong victory but if I was investing in these markets I would have to think that Romney at 29.3 would have to go up at some time. Even if he only got up to 40% that would be a 33% return on your investment, and yet people continue to sell off Romney stock.

The only possible way to read this is that the political investment class is considering an easy path to nomination no longer possible and he either will not be the nominee or mortally damaged as a candidate if he does get it.