2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)What is Sanders path to victory, specifically? [View all]
So it looks to me like Sanders is going to lose LA, MI, MS, FL, IL, and MD by pretty large margins. He may come close in OH, WI, NC, and PA if we are being generous. I think he will lose OH, PA, UT and NC but not by large margins. He may win WI, but not by a large margin.
Do you think he will get half the 166 Mar 8th Delegates (MI and MS)? No way. Maybe a third at best.
Do you think he will half the 691 March 15th delegates (OH, NC, IL, MO, and FL)? Again, nope.
Unless the polling is very far off (when it hasn't been in previous states) he has no chance to catch up after the 15th. In fact, realistically, I think he will be trailing her by over 300 delegates by then (versus the 200 delegates he is trailing now).
If I am correct, will he drop out after the 15th? If the situation comes about as predicted, what would be the reasoning to stay in the race? Is it credible to think he would win each of the remaining states by 70% or more in order to catch up to the lead she has built?
Thoughts?