That's not a poll, it's a projection. (Reply #25)

In the discussion thread: UPDATED!! Sanders is making one hell of a stand in Michigan. [View all]

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 11:24 PM

Chichiri (4,667 posts)

25. That's not a poll, it's a projection.

It's based on all recent polls, weighted for reliability and recency and corrected for known bias, and other factors such as national polling and endorsements. If you look at the projections and polling averages, they show that the race did tighten somewhat up until February 15 or so -- at its tightest, Hillary had only a 95% chance of winning the state. Her lead has increased since then, and she now has a greater than 99% chance of winning.

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47 replies	Author	Time	Post
UPDATED!! Sanders is making one hell of a stand in Michigan. [View all]	Barack_America	Mar 2016	OP
He mustn't forget to remind voters that the trees are all the right height	tularetom	Mar 2016	#1
Hmm no decent poll in a month	nadinbrzezinski	Mar 2016	#2
Only one in March is 100% landline, 86% 50 and older.	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#6
Fascinating	nadinbrzezinski	Mar 2016	#7
off topic, but where are the transcripts? Hillary says she's the "most transparent public official"	amborin	Mar 2016	#3
Oh, she's transparent all right. We can see right through her.	Qutzupalotl	Mar 2016	#5
OH SNAP! /nt	localroger	Mar 2016	#16
You got that right, Qutzupalotl.	Uncle Joe	Mar 2016	#27
Boom!	kath	Mar 2016	#32
Modern times started a second ago...	thereismore	Mar 2016	#13
I'm no worried about it. I want to see her fucking transcripts. What a liar. n/t	Avalux	Mar 2016	#17
The transcripts WILL NOT GO AWAY :)	yourpaljoey	Mar 2016	#26
If Sanders wins Michigan it's definitely a new race	alcibiades_mystery	Mar 2016	#4
He's here for a reason...	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#11
Like I said, he wins its new ballgame and I'll stick by that	alcibiades_mystery	Mar 2016	#12
So...new ballgame?	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#44
Absolutely	alcibiades_mystery	Mar 2016	#45
Well, of course...	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#46
Good luck!	alcibiades_mystery	Mar 2016	#47
There are a few recent polls that show us getting our asses kicked	Cheese Sandwich	Mar 2016	#8
The FOX 2 poll is junk. 100% landline, among other faults.	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#10
Thank dog.	thereismore	Mar 2016	#14
It has a "C" rating at FiveThirtyEight.	Chichiri	Mar 2016	#20
Question - where can one find the letter ratings for polls (such as this "C" one) at 538? I spent a	kath	Mar 2016	#33
Right here	Chichiri	Mar 2016	#35
thanks much!	kath	Mar 2016	#37
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Mar 2016	#40
Don't forget - the last poll to come out before the OK primary showed HRC up by 9. Bernie ended up	kath	Mar 2016	#34
I'm hoping independents and crossover voters	Le Taz Hot	Mar 2016	#39
They will undoubtedly. We will just have to see how much.	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#43
Kick	UglyGreed	Mar 2016	#9
Go, Bernie!	silverweb	Mar 2016	#15
Clinton's support for India's companies sending "workers" to the US vs. potential support for Gold-m	Arizona Roadrunner	Mar 2016	#18
Go, Bernie GO!!	AzDar	Mar 2016	#19
Latest projection: Clinton 64.0, Sanders 33.3.	Chichiri	Mar 2016	#21
With a bad poll, all you can do is compare it against itself...	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#22
That's not a poll, it's a projection.	Chichiri	Mar 2016	#25
It'll be interesting to see what he can do in Macomb County.	navarth	Mar 2016	#23
Birthplace of the Reagan Democrat.	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#29
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Mar 2016	#24
He's in De Vos family territory	monicaangela	Mar 2016	#28
Good for him, but I wouldn't get my hopes up too much	dreamnightwind	Mar 2016	#30
Winning states still carries huge momentum value.	Kentonio	Mar 2016	#31
He won't win it	Robbins	Mar 2016	#36
We have an open primary.	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#41
We'll get him a participation ribbon nt	firebrand80	Mar 2016	#38
Kicked and UPDATED.	Barack_America	Mar 2016	#42

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