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2016 Postmortem

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grantcart

(53,061 posts)
Sun Feb 19, 2012, 11:42 PM Feb 2012

PPP Latest Poll Santorum still leads in Michigan, race tightens [View all]

The race has tightened with Santorum's lead in Michigan down to 4% for the Feb 28th primary in Michigan.

It seems to indicate that if Romney overtakes Santorum in his home state it will be another narrow decision for Romney.




http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we're seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent's image- here Romney's gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), 'very conservative' voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).


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