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2016 Postmortem

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CalvinballPro

(1,019 posts)
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:44 AM Mar 2016

Yesterday, Sanders needed 54% of remaining delegates. Today he needs 58%. [View all]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination/
Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way.


Problem is, there are only something like 2 or 3 "open" primaries left where independents can make a difference. Everything else is closed, registered Democrats only. And Clinton is winning them by a wide margin, enough to prevent any "blowouts" necessary for Sanders to catch up.

And the percentage of delegates he needs to win will only climb higher and higher as the race goes on.
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