2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: NC FACTS--not pundit BS or pollster malarkey--Look at the numbers--FINAL UPDATE #10 [View all]politicman
(710 posts)2,380,000 = 700,000 - 3,080,000
850,000 / 2
1,020,000 - 3,020,000
Just a little math for you guys.
According to the OP's numbers, the following scenario needs to happen for Obama to win the state.
1) 2,800,000 Democratic registrations, THUS if only 85% of those end up voting then that will mean there will be 2,380,000 votes for Obama.
2) 2,000,000 Republican registrations, THUS if 100% of those end up voting then that will mean there will be 2,000,000 votes for Romney.
3) 1,700,000 Unafilliated registrations, THUS Obama will need at least 40% of those and he will get 700,000 votes while Romney will take 60% and get 1,000,000 votes.
The totals end up being aprroximately:
Obama will be approximately - 3,080,000
Romeny will be approximately 3,030,000
So to sum up, Obama will needa minimum of 85% of registered Democrats WHILE getting 40% of unafiliated voters.
Romeny will need 100% of regsitered Republicans to vote WHILE getting 60% of unafilliated voters.
Which of the above scenarios do you think is more likely to happen?