NC FACTS--not pundit BS or pollster malarkey--Look at the numbers--FINAL UPDATE #10

[onenote]

51. Actually, looking at 2008 data, winning NC is going to take a lot of work.

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:26 AM - Edit history (1)

Why? Because as I posted in another thread on this subject, the numbers in 2012 are not appreciably better than they were four years ago, when President Obama pulled out a narrow (14,000 vote) victory in the state. In fact, in some respects they are not as good.

Specifically, today there are approximately 2.846 million registered Democrats and 2.039 registered repubs and 1.7 unaffiliated. In 2008, there were approximately 2.867 million registered Democrats (20K more than today), 2.002 million registered repubs (35K less than today), and 1.4 million unaffiliated (300K less than today). President Obama eaked out a narrow victory over McCain with around 2.143 million votes compared to 2.128 million votes.

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/webapps/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-04-2008

The positive is that to the extent registration of Democrats fell off between 2008 and 2011 (which it did), the folks that we lost probably voted for McCain if at all in 2008 and the folks that have replaced them are probably more solidly in the Democratic column this time around. The fact that the repubs have picked up registrations also may reflect folks that weren't in the Obama column in 2008 switching their registrations, although it probably includes some new voters as well. The key as it often does, is the unaffiliated voters. There are a lot more of them and its hard to figure out how they will be voting. Bottom line: its likely to be very close again.