2016 Postmortem

aggiesal

(10,816 posts)

41. It's worst then you think

Fri Mar 2, 2012, 11:33 PM

Mar 2012

This is nowhere near accurate, because republican
control swing states are changing the rules on how
to distribute their electoral votes.

States like Florida and Nebraska don't use winner
takes all format, so Obama will only get a percentage
of the electoral votes.

Places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have legislation
to do the same already pending, and more republicn
swing state will try to do the same before Nov 2012.

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Path to 270: Obama's standing in every swing state (March edition) [View all] Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 OP

Kick pinto Mar 2012 #1

Well done amuse bouche Mar 2012 #37

That's before the Koch brothers et. al. start pouring money into the race. mahina Mar 2012 #2

It's worst then you think aggiesal Mar 2012 #41

Also, K & R. mahina Mar 2012 #3

Where can I find this map? RandySF Mar 2012 #4

270.com, which has updated their EVs based on the new Census numbers... Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #6

I don't think Colorado is a swing state anymore. RandySF Mar 2012 #5

I tend to agree... Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #7

The GOP has no chance in NM. I don't understand why it is considered a swing state. aaaaaa5a Mar 2012 #31

N.M. is a bellwether! CobaltBlue Mar 2012 #61

Plus The Marijuana Issue on Ballott otohara Mar 2012 #18

I'd consider Colorado a new bellwether state CobaltBlue Mar 2012 #63

Both VA and CO have become hotbeds of transplants fujiyama Mar 2012 #66

Great work as always, DI! Kahuna Mar 2012 #8

+1000 Excellent Compilation. You are now redeemed after your Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2012 #9

Florida, NC, Ohio and Virginia are all close davidpdx Mar 2012 #10

The repeal of the Ohio same sex marriage ban may be on the ballot in 2012... IamK Mar 2012 #13

Ah I hadn't heard that davidpdx Mar 2012 #42

Yes. But the good new is we can lose all 4 and still win. Not that I like that strategy though. nt aaaaaa5a Mar 2012 #32

Yeah but at least we have more paths to win davidpdx Mar 2012 #43

A typographic suggestion jeff47 Mar 2012 #11

Plus a minor punctuation error nxylas Mar 2012 #12

Haters. Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #47

"We're roughly eight months away from the 2012 election" Gruntled Old Man Mar 2012 #14

He didn't win in MO in 2008. McCain did. It was close. n/t Gore1FL Mar 2012 #15

I didn't say he did... Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #24

I had heard that Obama would have won had their been a recount. But Obama decided against it. aaaaaa5a Mar 2012 #33

Here is an article from the Washington Post on how close MO was. aaaaaa5a Mar 2012 #34

Well done but a useless exercise Kwarg Mar 2012 #16

I'm not predicting what will happen in the next eight months... Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #25

I strongly disagree. aaaaaa5a Mar 2012 #35

What you said :) ailsagirl Mar 2012 #54

What is even more positive is this occurs in spite of the constant hate talk that the media still_one Mar 2012 #17

Well done K&R center rising Mar 2012 #19

Damn D.I., after this excellent analyis, you deserve a drink. Tarheel_Dem Mar 2012 #20

I'm not even close to ready to feel confident Hyper_Eye Mar 2012 #21

While this year's election may indeed be tough, I doubt the Republicans........ AverageJoe90 Mar 2012 #49

I agree with a lot of points you make, but you are underestimating President Obama Obamacare Mar 2012 #50

Doesnt really matter what the Republicans do.. independents will decide this race. DCBob Mar 2012 #51

K&R Stellar Mar 2012 #22

D.I, may I republish this (with attribution of course) Rosco T. Mar 2012 #23

Go right ahead. Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #26

Created an Electoral Map Where Romney Wins all states where hes' within Margin of Error NeedleCast Mar 2012 #27

Thanks jberryhill Mar 2012 #29

It is also about turn out - to take back the supermajority. n/t davidwparker Mar 2012 #28

Outstanding. Well done. The only issue is turnout. And the new rules on voting ID, early voting etc. aaaaaa5a Mar 2012 #30

The president hasn't even started campaigning yet. Not bad. A little scary, but not bad. Liberal_Stalwart71 Mar 2012 #36

Spam deleted by cbayer (MIR Team) dfgrehe Mar 2012 #38

Arizona is a swing state? - those people will vote for anything. Well done. Thanks underpants Mar 2012 #39

Indiana hates Rmoney! Chipper Chat Mar 2012 #40

I put that red because I literally have not seen one poll from that state... Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #48

Indiana has a reputation for being cherry-red since 1996. Chipper Chat Mar 2012 #52

K&R Grateful for Hope Mar 2012 #44

Just before coming to this fujiyama Mar 2012 #45

Yep. The simplest path to understand for me is for Obama to win all the states that Liberal_Stalwart71 Mar 2012 #64

The most important point you make are the mulitple plausible paths to victory for Obama. DCBob Mar 2012 #46

Highest kudos! ailsagirl Mar 2012 #53

If I actually believed there were a "liberally-biased media" zbdent Mar 2012 #55

Spam deleted by NRaleighLiberal (MIR Team) ghjtydger Mar 2012 #56

The real battleground states of 2012 CobaltBlue Mar 2012 #57

this map shows what I think is the most plausible win scenario for the GOP DCBob Mar 2012 #58

Adjustment to your map. CobaltBlue Mar 2012 #60

Thanks CobaltBlue and welcome to DU! cbayer Mar 2012 #59

Thank you, and welcome to DU!!!! Liberal_Stalwart71 Mar 2012 #65

Thanks for the welcome! CobaltBlue Mar 2012 #62