2016 Postmortem

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)

20. Nate Silver rips Trump-Clinton polls in 8-part Twitter rant

Reply to Playinghardball (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 05:29 PM

May 2016

Politico

Nate Silver thinks it's time to pump the brakes on predicting the results of a Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton matchup in November.
"For f--k's sake, America. You're going to make go on a rant about general election polls -- in May?" the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight wrote as part of a tweetstorm on Tuesday.

Silver said Clinton has an about 6 percent lead over Trump nationally, but cautioned: "It's early. Trump could win. Also, he could lose in a landslide." He added that Trump's presumptive nomination and Clinton's ongoing battle with Bernie Sanders could be having an effect — "We'll know more in June."

The statistician said he wouldn't have polls of each state for "a few months."

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The latest Quinnipiac poll is everything we've been waiting for! [View all] Playinghardball May 2016 OP

Too bad he can't beat Hillary Gomez163 May 2016 #1

enjoy President Trump timmymoff May 2016 #7

He would be dead meat in the general election. Gomez163 May 2016 #9

She is dead meat timmymoff May 2016 #21

She has the most votes of any primary candidate, is beating Sanders by 3.5 million votes Gomez163 May 2016 #23

yup timmymoff May 2016 #26

They just don't get it. AZ Mike May 2016 #36

Most of them kaleckim May 2016 #53

Fuck 'em. Some damage can't be reversed. They will have to live with the consequences of their blind GoneFishin May 2016 #56

How many open primaries has Hillary won, you ask? 13 open primaries lunamagica May 2016 #67

Bernie gets 25% of the Republican Vote in Vermont. floppyboo May 2016 #43

What nonsense kaleckim May 2016 #52

The red baiting has worked nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #75

I get what you're saying kaleckim May 2016 #79

The example I gave you was not precisely young nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #80

nobody is afraid of red scare any more. grasswire May 2016 #76

+1000 n/t livetohike May 2016 #12

He can't beat the DNC and the Establishment. libdem4life May 2016 #28

He is outraising them outspending them and they still vote for Hillary. Gomez163 May 2016 #29

He's not a household name, duh. And, yes he has to continue the momentum. libdem4life May 2016 #37

Its a shame you have to resort to insults and can't back up your ideas with facts Gomez163 May 2016 #42

Dogfood in politics? Enough Said. That's just disgusting. libdem4life May 2016 #46

Keep selling that malarkey timmymoff May 2016 #39

Outraising Yes!!! Lot's of non-reg real dems love him! Outspending? You are kidding right? floppyboo May 2016 #50

This message was self-deleted by its author TM99 May 2016 #54

Sanders has done suprisingly well considering how undemocratic this primary is. That Guy 888 May 2016 #77

Exactly. Without the cheating and deck-stacking by the entire DNC machine Bernie would have easily GoneFishin May 2016 #58

Which says tons about people like yourself kaleckim May 2016 #51

Hillary only won lancer78 May 2016 #68

What do you mean the "pragmatic African American vote"? kaleckim May 2016 #70

African American voters lancer78 May 2016 #73

Unfortunately for you... JaneyVee May 2016 #2

Then why does 538 grade them higher? basselope May 2016 #10

Congrats on the 2 min post. Do you guys have a special app that allows you to lock in the rhett o rick May 2016 #18

FWIW, 538 is lousy this year. hellofromreddit May 2016 #32

I wasn't aware of the anticipation. NCTraveler May 2016 #3

If only he was just good enough to defeat Hillary. But he isn't. So he won't be the nominee... NurseJackie May 2016 #4

Strange way to look at things, considering timmymoff May 2016 #27

The shame will be the next 4 years. Barack_America May 2016 #45

To be fair, it could be HRH with Impeachment papers on Day 2. libdem4life May 2016 #47

Yep, that's the end game for the Hillary fanatics. BillZBubb May 2016 #65

Crosstabs are bad Station to Station May 2016 #5

But Bernie isn't running against Trump griffi94 May 2016 #6

Which still means nothing mythology May 2016 #8

This poll significantly over-sampled white voters and under-sampled Black voters; but, I agree ... 1StrongBlackMan May 2016 #11

That explains everything. TheCowsCameHome May 2016 #14

Ow! Ow! Ow! TheCowsCameHome May 2016 #13

This would be SUPER important if Proud Public Servant May 2016 #15

proud to put you on ignore. litlbilly May 2016 #41

he keeps winning, he has better poll numbers dana_b May 2016 #16

You forgot to put these up. Eko May 2016 #17

LOL...Quinnipiac that oversamples white voters nt UMTerp01 May 2016 #19

Nate Silver rips Trump-Clinton polls in 8-part Twitter rant brooklynite May 2016 #20

Ha..already blaming Sanders folk. Nothing about oh, say the FBI, libdem4life May 2016 #30

^lol^ I like bad puns! floppyboo May 2016 #44

In that poll, what do you think Sanders' diehards said when asked Clinton vs. Trump? Hoyt May 2016 #22

My god kaleckim May 2016 #59

I do realize how naive many are, and that when Clinton is officially Hoyt May 2016 #71

Feel the Bern! ViseGrip May 2016 #24

Sanders has not been attacked. It's that simple. nt ecstatic May 2016 #25

in your dreams. pdsimdars May 2016 #34

Yes, he has so many years of scandals. Um, he has decades of libdem4life May 2016 #35

Yes. We can start with the VA, Lockheed Martin, and gun lobby ecstatic May 2016 #49

You run with that. libdem4life May 2016 #55

No need. He'll be a distant memory in a couple weeks. nt ecstatic May 2016 #63

How about video with Bernie promising to raise taxes on the middle class redstateblues May 2016 #61

That's because he's clean. TheCowsCameHome May 2016 #38

?! kaleckim May 2016 #62

Bernie has not been vetted by the general public. These polls mean nothing at this point. beaglelover May 2016 #31

Quinnipiac has been off apcalc May 2016 #33

The rust belt is going to be a challenge with Clinton Ash_F May 2016 #40

That's not really a battle Sanders could win vs. Trump imo ContinentalOp May 2016 #69

Quinnipiac..lol. Ohioblue22 May 2016 #48

Another polling company under the bus. tabasco May 2016 #60

If the Rs had 5 months to run the video of bernie promising to raise taxes on the middle class redstateblues May 2016 #57

Or the "breadlines are really a good thing" video. NuclearDem May 2016 #64

Fine, but Bernie lost to both of them on March 16. ucrdem May 2016 #66

More polls, please! (Context.) CobaltBlue May 2016 #72

K & R AzDar May 2016 #74

K&R. nt silvershadow May 2016 #78