2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Polls: Trump Closing In On Hillary [View all]The same Nate Silver that admits he was insanely wrong on Trump? The same Nate Silver that now admits that he did in fact have a bias in how he aggregated his data (see the video below)? The same Nate Silver that has a proven bias in favor of Clinton (see the link below, have tons more)?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/04/is-538-in-the-bag-for-hillary/
Hatlem claims that in 18 of 21 states outside the South, Silvers predictions have a pro-Clinton bias of 12.5%. He bases his analysis from what polls predicted, on what 538 forecasted, and on the results from those primaries. Silver has been averaging polls to predict primary outcomes and he has also been mapping polls and 538s predictions to track over time how well candidates are gathering the necessary delegates to capture the nomination. Significantly, Hatlem does something Silver doesnt do: admit his own biasfor Sanders. He writes that he has been wrong in twelve of eighteen states since Super Tuesday because his predictions had a pro-Clinton bias of 7%. In other words, he undersold Sanders a bit just to be safe in his voting forecasts.
Or this from TYT (watch it and respond):
"Nate Silver's Bias Exposed"