2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Since 1928, Florida has voted for every presidential winner with exceptions of Democratic pickup winners John Kennedy (1960) and Bill Clinton (1992). And they narrowly missed flipping Florida. The state has been carried during this period by every winning Republican. Given that, with the realigning and counter-realigning of the electoral map, the Republicans have averaged between 7 and 9 electoral votes per carried state since after the 1980s. And the two winning Republican victories, for George W. Bush, averaged 9 electoral votes per carried state. (Since the 1990s, no presidential winner carried more than the 32 states won by Bill Clinton with his first election in 1992.)
Ohio has been on its bellwether status since 1896it has voted for all winners except Democrats Franklin Roosevelt (for his last term won in 1944) and John Kennedy (in 1960, and the last presidential candidate elected while both Florida and Ohio carried for his losing opponent). The record still stands that every Republican presidential winner has carried the state of Ohio. In 2012, Ohio was the only state whose gender votes reflected national support for re-electing President Barack Obama45 percent from men and 55 percent from women. (Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by D+3.86 and carried Ohio by D+2.98. I feel it is 100 percent likely Ohio will once again back the presidential winner of Election 2016.)